Refiners are now responding to explosive year over year growth in solar demand, with predictable lag due to the time it takes to get factories up and running along with hedging risk by waiting to see if solar really was going to take off. As most of these manufacturers are used to dealing with the extremely volatile semiconductor industry (where demand can turn off overnight) some initial reluctance to quickly expand is understandable.

As solar matures the following will probably happen.  Polycrystalline solar production will vary somewhat with the Si demand of the semiconductor industry. Thin film solar tech (which uses very little if any silicon per watt compared to standard photovoltaic tech) will grow to a substantial portion of the market and will be used to produce the remainder of what the polycrystalline market cannot provide, essentially creating an independent supply chain for the solar industry that decouples them from the nasty volatility of the semiconductor industry. In the long run the approximate reverse will be true - some sort of thin film tech will be the primary product, and polycrystalline solar production will be limited to "soaking up" all the spare Si capacity that the semiconductor industry is not using, particularly in times of low demand. Any solar manufacturer that is large enough will produce both for that reason.

The thin film tech coming along is, I think, an attempt to address EROEI even if it isn't intentional or thought of within that framework. Polycrystalline Si that is good enough to make CPUs for your computer is overkill for solar cells and thus there is potential room for EROEI improvement.

Ammonia production, on the other hand (which uses natural gas as a feedstock), is already being directly impacted by peaking natural gas production in North America. Various plants in the southern US have been shut down during periods of high natural gas prices over the past several years.

I only argue this narrow point because the way you present the concept it can be used as a bludgeon by doomers.

you are the media you consume.