I'd have some trouble fitting a downwards curve to that data ....
Not if you were with the American Enterprise Institute :-P
Day by day data might draw an interesting curve.
Nah, random scatter would obscure any trend if you go to that resoluation.
I tried running two- and three-month running averages, but that doesn't make things a lot prettier, so I decided to just go ahead an post the raw data. This leads me to believe that a resolution of about one month (maybe you could push it down to two weeks, or even one week, but I don't think you could go much further) is about optimal as far as grouping goes.
Of course, one could use running averages (i.e. have a data point for each day that represents the average deaths pr. day for the 30-day period leading up to the point). But I'm not convinced that there is sufficient additional information to be obtained by doing so to justify the bother.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
Not saying it's meaningful though ;-)
the subtle mathematical technique used is called drawing a random line that shows the message you intend and bluffing competence. I think it's the same technique used in the original graph in the story. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
