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There is lots to feel optimistic about. We already have much of the knowledge that would allow us to reduce carbon emissions drastically within a few decades and improve the quality of our lives. Climate change, resource and ecosystem service depletion all demand that we switch to a highly efficient economy by mid-century. Unfortunately, we especially lack the political will to implement the switch away from fossil fuels and more generally account for externalities in the cost of doing business in order to stem wasteful practices. If we only consider how much more efficient our transportation sector would already be today if we had followed the trend toward fuel-efficiency after the 73 oil crisis, and had funded emerging technologies 15 years ago when we already knew we had a climate problem, it empowers us to think that we can successfully address these questions in the coming decades. Sustainability was not even a slight consideration for the power brokers that made these decisions and it probably wasn't for a lack of awareness of these issues (the Club of Rome is almost 40 years old).

The dominant narrative according to which reducing waste is the equivalent of returning to the stone age is the cause of the public reticence toward global warming remediation. It's rather impossible for most to imagine that we can improve our lives by switching to renewables when nothing is done to provide the infrastructure that would allow envisionning change and nothing is said to inform the public of the economic benefits of new technologies. Discussing environmental catastrophes may not have a quantifyable effect on the public will to address global warming, but it is the only way we have to communicate that business as usual is the surest way to return to the stone age. Still, I completely agree that we need to impose a discourse that is positive toward our capacity of adaptation; after all, it shouldn't be very difficult since this framing is already part of the dominant dicourse w.r.t. human inventiveness.

by Fete des fous on Wed Oct 3rd, 2007 at 02:59:21 AM EST
"If we only consider how much more efficient our transportation sector would already be today if we had followed the trend toward fuel-efficiency after the 73 oil crisis, and had funded emerging technologies 15 years ago when we already knew we had a climate problem, it empowers us to think that we can successfully address these questions in the coming decades."

Devilstower had a magnificent piece at Daily Kos re automobiles Sunday. (DKos seems to be down -- definitely worth checking out, wonderfully written and right on this point.)

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Wed Oct 3rd, 2007 at 06:35:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A problem with most of the plans based on conservation is that they start from the idea that we will all suddenly start conserving, which will reduce the demand for oil, which will reduce CO2 emissions, but we will maintain the same sort of economy. It seems to me that it's more likely that we will go through something like the 1973-4 oil crisis, which accomplished the conserving but had an accompanying large impact on the global economy.

Option 1: Try to convince people to conserve.
Option 2: Do nothing. When the oil is no longer available, for whatever reason, then people will conserve.

Realistically, we are going to choose (or have already chosen) the latter.

by asdf on Wed Oct 3rd, 2007 at 11:00:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Toothless conservation plans tell us more about those who propose such plans than about what is realistic. It is indeed a choice for the US congress to impose meaningless increases in fuel economy to the autmobile industry but it has little to do with what the US public would do if provided with the possibility of owning highly efficient vehicles. In other words, trying to convince people to conserve without providing the infrastructure which makes conservation a reasonnable option will of course lead to the business as usual scenario but it is a choice made by policymakers.
by Fete des fous on Thu Oct 4th, 2007 at 11:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is, in part, why I have a message focused on efficiency and renewables.

Energy is a three part situation:

  • Source
  • Efficiency of use
  • what we use it for

We should be striving to move "source" to sustainable/renewables (and, well, non-GHG polluters).

Efficiency should be driven as far as possible.

And, well, while I want more sensible usage patterns, more efficient systems using renewable / sustainable power will make those "conservation" choices both more likely and more powerful.

I know that, without a doubt, a good percentage of people won't be 'tree-huggers'.  But, if there is not a choice when they turn on the air conditioner as to how efficient it is, well, they will be using less power.

But, by making more efficient systems more widely available, and the benefits of those systems more visible, they will 'own' ever more market share.

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Thu Oct 4th, 2007 at 02:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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