Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study · Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year · Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown. The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel. "The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP behind the country's successful support system for renewable energy.
· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year · Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted
World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.
The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.
"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP behind the country's successful support system for renewable energy.
Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year... World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030
World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030
well if it falls by 7% a year, then it hits 50% in about 9 years not 23
for it to halve by 2030, then it would fall by about 3% per year. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
(Didn't see your comment before I started mine.)
then you're looking at the oil supply halving by 2040, which still isn't good. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
Negative 7% is a decline to 48.3982% of current production at the end of 10 years?
Jeebus criminey, that is Not Good.
How reliable is the Energy Watch Group?
According to the scenario calculations, oil production will decline by about 50% until 2030. This is equivalent to an average annual decline rate of 3%, well in line with the US experience where oil production from the lower 48 states declined by 2-3% per year. However, it must be noted that this is a moderate assumption as today a large fraction of the oil is produced offshore. Offshore fields are produced by very aggressive modern extraction methods, e.g. injection of water, gas, heat and surfactants - in order to increase the pressure and decrease the viscosity - and horizontal drilling - in order to extract the oil faster. These methods allow the faster extraction of the oil for a limited time. The horizontal wells allow to extract more oil per time, but as soon as the water level reaches the horizontal well, oil production switches to water production almost within several months. These production methods lead to decline rates after peak of 10% per year or even more (e.g. 14% per year in Cantarell (Mexico), 8-10% in Alaska, UK and Norway, more than 10% in Oman and possibly 10% or more in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field in Saudi Arabia).
According to the scenario calculations, oil production will decline by about 50% until 2030. This is equivalent to an average annual decline rate of 3%, well in line with the US experience where oil production from the lower 48 states declined by 2-3% per year.
However, it must be noted that this is a moderate assumption as today a large fraction of the oil is produced offshore. Offshore fields are produced by very aggressive modern extraction methods, e.g. injection of water, gas, heat and surfactants - in order to increase the pressure and decrease the viscosity - and horizontal drilling - in order to extract the oil faster. These methods allow the faster extraction of the oil for a limited time. The horizontal wells allow to extract more oil per time, but as soon as the water level reaches the horizontal well, oil production switches to water production almost within several months. These production methods lead to decline rates after peak of 10% per year or even more (e.g. 14% per year in Cantarell (Mexico), 8-10% in Alaska, UK and Norway, more than 10% in Oman and possibly 10% or more in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field in Saudi Arabia).
Conclusion The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.
The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.
