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Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year...

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030

well if it falls by 7% a year, then it hits 50% in about 9 years not 23

for it to halve by 2030, then it would fall by about 3% per year.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2007 at 09:22:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2.9687% -- to be exact

(Didn't see your comment before I started mine.)

by ATinNM on Sun Oct 21st, 2007 at 09:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and we don't all have fancy financial calculators ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2007 at 10:31:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the pretty pictures I have seen on peak oil it would appear to follow some form of bell curve. Not sure of the foundations that model rests on, but I would guess that they would be using something like that.

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by A swedish kind of death on Sun Oct 21st, 2007 at 10:53:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well in the pretty pictures here

then you're looking at the oil supply halving by 2040, which still isn't good.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 04:43:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To a first approximation, it follows a logistic equation. It is "a" bell curve, but not "the" bell curve.

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 05:24:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe a 3% decline is 7% less than the current IEA forecast, or something?

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 05:23:22 PM EST
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