For Cheney Inc and the Bush subsidiary it's never been anything more than rolling the dice in the oil crap game. For President A, standing up to the Great Satan is his chance of staying in power, because his economic competence isn't going to keep him there.
Cheney and Bush were given the green light for Big Oil to take over Iraq, followed smoothly by Iran. It would have been a goldmine for the people who really run the US aka Big Money.
But it didn't happen, of course.
What we are seeing here is the last roll of the dice IMHO. Big Oil wants to come out of the Presidency with the Iraqi Oil law in place, at least, and its just possible, they think, that Iran might be able to help them swing it.
I reckon all this current ballyhoo is just more noise: I don't believe that Big Money would let Bush pull the trigger because of the market consequences.
Despite all the pessimism and paranoia "They", whether Bush, Cheney or whoever comes after just do not have what it takes to lock down a US in financial/social meltdown, never mind anywhere else. "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
ie use the initiative to get a lock on the Iranian elite's overseas assets and then make them an offer they can't refuse.
It's common knowledge in Iran that it's companies controlled by the Revolutionary Guard that have the monopoly on shipping in booze from Turkey, for instance.... "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
The Big Money people were Bush I's backers, and we've seen what short shrift Baker & Co. get in Washington these days. Maybe the oil industry is still on board, but I would be surprised if a large part of the moneyed establishment isn't feeling just as helpless as we are right now. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
Big Oil may have seen Junior as their creature, and Cheney as their creature's handler. But if so, they haven't been paying attention to their history.
Yep. That's kinda tough for people who've conditioned themselves not to consider anything longer than a 3-month timeframe. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
Big Oil wants to come out of the Presidency with the Iraqi Oil law in place
Big Oil does not care about the Iraqi Oil law. They're not investing in Iraq, and it's not because of the absence of that law, and any law put in place by anybody while the Americans are there will not change the situation on the ground (ie civil war), and any law can be repealed once the Americans finally leave.
Big Oil knows the Oil law is pointless. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Gotta trot out a narrative that gives the American public a lie thy can use to cover their soul with, at least in the short term. Sarko will do the same.
Please read my post above --today's school lesson for Giselle. What color will those kids in the over-ten prison be? Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
Cheney & Bush want to have it in place before they leave office. Big Oil are indeed more pragmatic about its practical use.
But I do not see the US "finally leaving", any more than they "finally left" Cuba, unless they perceive security of access to Iraqi oil.
The Oil Law is about more than securing favourable access it is about securing favourable price.
And it may well be taking on a totemic significance because I do not believe that there was any other motive - for Cheney and Bush at least - for the invasion of Iraq. "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
So it's pointless. Completely. Irredeemably. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
But many people said it was pointless before invasion began and they still did it. The signs point to long-term and intensive military presence. The generals seem to think so. They must think they will eventually pacify the place or at least part of it, as crazy as it may seem to us. Moreover, they have to pacify Iraq whether or not they attack Iran. I must say I have always thought they would end up balkanizing Iraq. They were well aware of the great probability of Iraq splitting up if they went in as Cheney said in 1994. The fall back position could be to make a deal with the kurds for a homeland while grabbing as much of the Kirkuk area for its oil. They'd end up controlling more or less half (?) of known reserves in Iraq. I hate to think of what the future has in store for Iraqis.
Attacking Iran seems extremely risky and I don't think they'd take the gamble. Unless they are nuts of course, but I have to acknowledge a more machiavelian view of the state than their allowing the crazies to run the asylum.
It is interesting that most of Saudi Arabia's oil is also under shiite territory, in Saudi Arabia's shiite North. We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo
But I think there is far more oil in the south. Maybe proprotions like 4 to 1, or something like that. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
