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The data is comaptible with an stabilization of the price in euros after a raise in 2004...

2004 was the year we had full confirmation that some non-OPEC coutnires had already peakes and the declining rates of production in thsoe countries were known...

After that .. it seems to me that the price is rahter stable.. I bet that it  can not be rejected as a null hypothesis.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 04:38:31 PM EST
We are more than 60% above the 2004 peak (incidentally, exactly three years ago) in dollar terms, and more than 40% in Euro terms. Stability as null hypothesis could be better argued from the summer of 2005 on, but we'll see where we head next year. (I'd agree that the last three weeks' rise has less to do with tight supply and more with war fears.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 05:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you can not reject given the oscillation from 2004 onwards. while you woudl be able to reject this hypothesis witht he dolalr given the ocntinuous increase..t eh oscialtion in price in euros put the price today as standard...  We would need ac ontinaution of the trend in the last two weeks in the next year to start deivating significatively fromt he sigma......

I personally think that we will see the price in euros stabilized if there is no war....or at the most have  slow increase... while the dollar can reach easili the 1.6 mark.. so 130$ per barrel will be rather stable in euros.. that's an opinion... but of course I do not know...

aApleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 05:21:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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