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my original estimate was 2009.  Looking to be too optimistic.  From Nigeria in turmoil to the disaster in Iraq to troubles in Venzezuela and now saber rattling at Iran everything is breaking wrong.  C'est la vie.

It's interesting though that you can still buy 2010 (Dec WTI) at $78.5 or so.  And pretty flat from there out to 2015.  

I wouldn't be at all shocked if some news event led the bulls to try to hit $100 just to trigger stops and general panic.  There's a lot of profit in panic.  But just the same, I wouldn't be shocked if we have a warm Dec and get a puke like last year when we dropped from $70 to $50 in a couple of weeks.

by HiD on Sun Oct 28th, 2007 at 11:18:49 PM EST
I think the market is not thinking much about LT prices - the curve seems to target the price where oil was a few months or weeks back, from wherever the spot is. So it's essentially flat, a sign of cluelessness more than anything.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 05:29:25 AM EST
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suspect producers are more eager to lock in forward prices at these levels than consumers. People still expect a reversion to mean.
by HiD on Tue Oct 30th, 2007 at 05:15:48 AM EST
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I wouldn't be at all shocked if some news event led the bulls to try to hit $100 just to trigger stops and general panic.

They're on the way... $93.80 reached today, and Brent is now beyond $90, too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 03:34:13 PM EST
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