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Although there is a slowdown, even a slight reverse, in the housing markets, I'm not convinced yet that there will be a crash. There is still too much pressure of demand in the market place to allow prices to fall too far. Nor will that change unless there are widespread redundancies for which the evidence is not yet emergent.

however, there will be a welcome cleansing factor that speculators, who have been hoovering up property in the tax-abusive "buy-to-let" get-rich-quick scheme, are finding that rents are not covering the increases in their mortgages and the properties are coming back onto the market, for the overall benefit of everybody.


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 30th, 2007 at 01:40:50 PM EST
I think a lot depends on what you term a crash.

As you note in your diary, houses are at 8 times average annual wage. Now, historically the long run average is about 4 times. So we might assess that the appropriate level given the demand pressure is about, say 6 times...

That means prices may well be destined to halve in the short term as the correction from a bubble invariably overshoots the "natural level."

That isn't actually technically a crash, but may well kind of feel like one...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2007 at 07:35:31 PM EST
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