There's no recession.

This is debatable, I think. Inflation is being systematically under-reported in both the UK and US, and I suspect that if the true growth figures were available they'd either be close to zero or negative.

European Tribune - Comments - Countdown to $100 oil (51) - we'll never see 100mbd

Which points to a simple conclusion: oil is still much too cheap.

Or possibly, politicians are stupid and incapable of much in the way of forward planning.

Never mind. We may have an attack on Iran soon, which will do wonders for oil pricing.