but do we really want to throw out all numbers?
aren't some measures useful, even necessary, for detecting, identifying, and evaluating problems and measuring progress in reducing those problems? that is, i think, what Karl Popper was advocating when he wrote of "piecemeal social engineering":
The politician who adopts this method may or may not have a blueprint of society before his mind, he may or may not hope that manking will one day realize an ideal state, and achieve happiness and perfection on earth. But he will be ware that perfection, it at all attainable, is far distant, and that every generation of men, and therefore also the living, have a claim; perhaps not so much a claim to be made happy, for there are not institutional means of making a man happy, but a claim not be to made unhappy, where it can be avoided. They have a claim to be given all possible help, if they suffer. The piecemeal engineer will, accordingly, adopt the method of searching for, and fighting agaginst, the greatest and most urgent evils of society, rather than searching for, and fighting for, its greatest ultimate good.
if so, then maybe someone should be saying that at this conference. Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
GDP and GNP, by contrast, are estimates, derived by statistical survey (at least in the US), which serve no apparent purpose other than the rhetorical; the 'comparative advantage of nations' and all that predates the metric, oddly enough, and hasn't perceptibly altered the trajectories of domestic governance or mutually assured destruction.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but even bi-lateral trade agreements aren't enforced on account of GNP/GDP but actual stocks and capital flows (unadjusted price) and, well, embargo or martial retaliation. So ...
Perhaps then a preference for cost-based accounting is the negative evidence needed falsify GDP/GNP rhetoric. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
The claim not to be made unhappy is pretty close to the Golden rule, isn't it?
On the other hand, identification of "most urgent evils" is a tricky question. Members or groups of a society may disagree mightily. What is the most urgent evil now: terrorism? global warming? market ideology? certain politicians?
Most importantly, I don't see well that we use statistical measures or estimates specifically for upsetting any urgent evils. I can imagine that some institutions are doing their work to follow (say) population health and similar developments - but not on a political scale; nor those institution probably develop themselves or their methods progressively. What I see is that human rational, innovational or inspirational capacities are directed precisely the wrong direction - to fool each other and ourselves with GDP growths and non-worrisome projections. Statistical measures and estimates are forcefully used precisely by the people who do not care about common good or harm. Somehow, rational progressives do not seem to have a set of measures and interpretations to quantify presumed evils, or are not able to "sell" their perspective. From this point of view, statistics is not saving the world at all, for now.
I believe this is precisely the problem that Hans Rosling, who will be speaking at "Beyond GDP", is trying to address with his GapMinder project, a
non-profit venture for development and provision of free software that visualise human development.
In the following video, he talks about this software is designed to express statistical information in a way that was not possible until recently:
Unveiling the Beauty of Statistics
Also, Worldmapper is trying to do something similar, in a static, yet nevertheless intriguing way, as well. For example:
International demonstrations This map shows the distribution of the 15.9 million people worldwide who protested against the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by troops from over 25 other territories, including from the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Poland.
This map shows the distribution of the 15.9 million people worldwide who protested against the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by troops from over 25 other territories, including from the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Poland.
Violent Deaths (2002) The violent deaths shown here are homicide (murder and manslaughter), but exclude deaths due to war.
The violent deaths shown here are homicide (murder and manslaughter), but exclude deaths due to war.
Landmine Casualties This map shows those people that have been injured or killed by landmines.
This map shows those people that have been injured or killed by landmines.
Carbon Damage This map shows estimated carbon damage due to emissions.
This map shows estimated carbon damage due to emissions.
etc.
You can find many, many others, in various categories, on their website. Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
Often Preventable Deaths In rich territories, deaths from most of these conditions are much lower except for infections in the elderly. For this reason they can be considered easily preventable conditions. These conditions are divided into (with their contribution to the total deaths in Group I in 2002): * A. Infections [Infectious and parasitic diseases], Map 372, (59% of deaths). These are diseases spread directly or indirectly from person to person. * B. Respiratory infections, Map 403, (22% of deaths). These are infections of the ears and respiratory tract. * C. Maternal conditions, Map 407, (3% of deaths). These are conditions affecting women before, during and after childbirth. * D. Perinatal conditions, Map 408, (13% of deaths). These are conditions arising in babies before or within one week of birth. * E. Nutritional deficiencies, Map 411,(3% of deaths). These are conditions due to food, vitamin and mineral shortages. These conditions caused 32% of all deaths worldwide in 2002, an average of 2968 deaths per million people. Territories are sized in proportion to the absolute number of people who died from most preventable (communicable infections, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions) in one year.
In rich territories, deaths from most of these conditions are much lower except for infections in the elderly. For this reason they can be considered easily preventable conditions.
These conditions are divided into (with their contribution to the total deaths in Group I in 2002):
* A. Infections [Infectious and parasitic diseases], Map 372, (59% of deaths). These are diseases spread directly or indirectly from person to person. * B. Respiratory infections, Map 403, (22% of deaths). These are infections of the ears and respiratory tract. * C. Maternal conditions, Map 407, (3% of deaths). These are conditions affecting women before, during and after childbirth. * D. Perinatal conditions, Map 408, (13% of deaths). These are conditions arising in babies before or within one week of birth. * E. Nutritional deficiencies, Map 411,(3% of deaths). These are conditions due to food, vitamin and mineral shortages.
These conditions caused 32% of all deaths worldwide in 2002, an average of 2968 deaths per million people.
Territories are sized in proportion to the absolute number of people who died from most preventable (communicable infections, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions) in one year.
