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Does anyone know what proportion of world oil supply is what might be termed "free float"?

ie available for trading, and not tied up in contracts that do not permit re-sale?

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Nov 13th, 2007 at 05:15:14 AM EST
HiD would be in a better position to reply than me, but enough would be my answer. This is one of the most liquid markets around. Cargoes can change hands many, many times when they are on the open sea, and can also fairly easily be rerouted. Netbacks from the main centers (Rotterdam and a few others) are easy to calculate.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 13th, 2007 at 05:23:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that "enough" is now the case.

Certainly the decline in Brent crude oil production led eventually to the Brent 15 day market becoming an accident waiting to happen, and there was a squeeze practically every other month as the number of cargoes available for trading declined and the  depth of pockets necessary for squeezes fell.

In the end, a few years ago, someone killed the goose that laid the golden egg with a particularly egregious example of a squeeze and the industry responded by including (from memory) Forties and Osebjerg quality alongside Brent.

But the problem is bound to recur.

I suspect that the sheer weight of hedge fund money, and other speculative proprietary buying, may well be causing "Free Float" oil to become increasingly disconnected from the rest of the market who use Brent and WTI as benchmarks.

As you say, HiD is best qualified to comment.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Nov 13th, 2007 at 08:32:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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