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1 - does your first graph shows an increase (so far) of both corn exports and ethanol production? If it does, the impact of US ethanol policy on corn prices is based on future expectations. Or did the graph had a double Y axis?

2 - do you know someone (person, institution) who has studied deeply the effect on the increase of oil price in external acquisition of food? if it takes more than a few  seconds to remember and write back, I'm not sure if you should answer. I don't want to burden you.

by findmeaDoorIntoSummer on Wed Nov 14th, 2007 at 04:45:29 PM EST
  1.  The graph was stolen researched from the website given in the cite.  My reading was a double Y axis reflecting independent datasets.  What I liked was the way it showed the use of food for fuel is right up there with the use of food for food.  

  2.  I'm ashamed (intellectually) to say, "I don't."  DeAnander may know an expert in the field.  
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 14th, 2007 at 07:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bananas were about $.33 to .39 per pound on sale last year. This year I can find them for $.49, but not often. Grapes from Chile could be found on sale for $.99 last year, this year more like 1.49 minimum. I should add that my reference location is the Pacific NW.

Some of that may be exchange-based due to the declining dollar, but these items come from Central to far-South America, and I don't know if they are still somewhat aligned or not.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Wed Nov 14th, 2007 at 10:44:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The chart shows US corn exports rising over the last few years at the same time as corn-to-ethanol rises, the two now being at a similar level. (On the same y axis, in millions of metric tons). Total production of maize in the US ran from 168 million metric tons in 1980 to 282 m MT in 2006 (FAO statistics).

Here's another (ugly, sorry) graph showing what US corn is used for:

Ethanol transformation makes up most of the industrial uses, others being cornstarch, corn oil, polymers, etc. The main use is still for animal feed (and the very mysterious residual, which I'm the only person in the world to understand, and I'm not saying.)

From the same page:

U.S. Grains Council | Barley, Corn & Sorghum | Corn

The United States grew 42 percent of the world's corn in during fiscal year 2006, producing 282.3 million metric tons (11.1 billion bushels). Other major corn producing countries in 2006 included:

  • China -139.4 million metric tons (5.5 billion bushels)
  • Brazil - 41.7 million metric tons (1.64 billion bushels)
  • European Union - 48.3 million metric tons (1.9 billion bushels)
  • Mexico - 19.5 million metric tons (767 million bushels)
  • Argentina - 15.8 million metric tons (622 million bushels)
  • India - 15 million metric tons (590.5 million bushels)

Your point about prices: yes, these are futures markets, and there's a certain amount of speculation taking place. But world demand is exceeding supply, even if the US is keeping up its export level. (China, for example, had to import grains this year in spite of its food self-sufficiency doctrine, because ethanol distilleries were buying up local production).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 15th, 2007 at 04:09:11 AM EST
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