This line is part of the Madrid-Irún line which will allow high-speed trains to run between Madrid and Paris in under 10 hours (maybe DoDo knows the planned travel time for this future route). With no definite route set on half the missing sections, it is a bit early to predict travel time. Would it all be fully built out for 360 km/h with no gaps, it could be around four hours non-stop. But realistically, we can be happy with six hours in 2016, with seven more likely (2h10 Paris-Bordeaux, maybe 2h30m Madrid-Irún, what's critical is in-between in France).
With no definite route set on half the missing sections, it is a bit early to predict travel time. Would it all be fully built out for 360 km/h with no gaps, it could be around four hours non-stop. But realistically, we can be happy with six hours in 2016, with seven more likely (2h10 Paris-Bordeaux, maybe 2h30m Madrid-Irún, what's critical is in-between in France).
Today Madrid-Irún is at best similarly 5½h. But how did you get at nothing under 3h30 with high-speed?
Madrid-Valladolid (179.6 km) is slated at an initial 0h55 (later 0h50), while Vitoria-San Sebastián on the in-construction Y Vasca (c. 110 km) at 0h34m. Nothing is definite for Valladolid-Burgos-Vitoria (c. 220 km), but Aznar-time general plans put Madrid-Vitoria at 1h35, Madrid-San Sebastián at 2h15 (and Valladolid at 0h50).
Direct Madrid-Paris, or even Madrid-Vitoria and Madrid-San Sebastián trains don't need to stop at intermediate stops (just as there are say direct Paris-Marseilles trains). Note that San Sebastián is not on the direct line to France (for that matter, Irún may be bypassed too), check on the Y Vasca map (and with bypass in this press release [pdf!]).
What might limit schedule plans in the medium term is problems with the signalling system ERTMS Lev 2. Madrid-Barcelona runs with 300 km/h only since a few months, and it seems plans to run the Siemens and Talgo trains at higher speeds (350 resp. 330 km/h) have been put on ice. But this should be solved by the time all of the Valladolid-Vitoria gap is built... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
