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AC Nielson / Fairfax Ltd. shows a Labor landslide, while the Newspoll and Galaxy shows a 52/48 Labor advantage on a two-party preferred basis ... and the Coalition beat Labor when Labor won 51.5% of the national vote on a two-party preferred basis.

transcript of ABC Friday "PM" (Radio National news) story

Tis a puzzle ... there is different polling methodology, but still, this is a big gap in polling very late in the race.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Nov 23rd, 2007 at 10:41:05 AM EST
... but I just saw a graphic on the ABC (Australian BC, that is) election blog that would have cast more light on the "narrow" poll that showed a 52/48 ALP advantage ... it plots Labor percentage of the vote against Labor percentage of the seats in the House ...

... as you can see, they've lost the parliamentary election with 51% of the two-party preferred vote, but never with 52%. So all of the polls were in agreement on a Labor win, only in disagreement on how big it would be.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Nov 25th, 2007 at 08:04:23 PM EST
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