The Coalition in the Senate is almost certainly not going to block supply, so the labor policies on Education and broadband infrastructure, which are more spending initiatives than changes in legislation, are unlikely to be blocked. Having been elected on a platform of ratifying Kyoto, it seems likely that the Senate will confirm that ... at the very least, Family First may get the impression from the Greens that being in the game for preference swaps in the next election may require support for Kyoto, and since the Independent is on the record as supporting Kyoto, that would be a majority ...

... that leaves rolling back the most extreme of the IR law reforms under the last Coalition government, when it held the balance of power.

On that, after the "Work Choices" system being a big part of the defeat of the Coalition, I reckon its likely that at least some of the Coalition Senators will demand token concessions and then pass the Labor program. In particular, some of the National Senators may be eager to demonstrate the continuing relevance of their party, and some headline concessions for primary producers in rural areas might be sufficient to get two or three Nationals Senators on board.

One of the stories in this election is the confirmation of the final electoral collapse of the Australian Democrats, which started a process of steep decline from holding the balance of power in the Senate with its support for the enactment of Howard's GST, which was then accelerated by its inability to find a coherent position to stand between the Coalition and the ALP as the ALP positioned itself closer to the electoral middle of the road.

One more election like this, and the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.