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it will be probably a Labor landslide with a wall to wall goverment but that will not be that easy:
As stated in the diar, it is not a direct election and labor needs to win some crucial, but difficult to get, seats like in Queesland.

game is not done.

a fun scenario would be to see a Coalition victory but with Howard losing his own seat and thus not be able to stay PM.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 05:14:43 AM EST
Reading Australian sites, it seems to me that the situation is similar to that in the UK in 1997. The country has definitely decided to change the government and nothing the incumbents can do will change things.

However the ALP has had a run of disappointments in the last few elections, so just like the British Labour Party in 1997, the ALP cannot quite believe that they will achieve a landslide. Thus quite minor shifts in opinion polls (which as far as I can see are meaningless fluctuations within the margin of error), lead to panicy fears that things will not turn out as good as was hoped.

by Gary J on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 05:26:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... is that the big cross-section polls in the most marginal seats shows a swing quite similar to the national polls. I don't recall that in all the elections when I was living in Oz (I arrived the day after Howard was elected, so I have seen him re-elected a number of times).


Utsukushii kereba sore de ii
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 10:06:16 PM EST
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