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I think that the degree to which energy demand in the US is inelastic, specifically with reference to home electric and gasoline for transportation has just begun to dawn on US policymakers.

Now when demand is that damned inelastic, you can tax it to the moon, and still not cause consumption to drop.  Which of course means that it's an excellent revenue source for the government.

When the government finally realized this about cigarettes, state governments started to ramp up taxes on them to create a new revenue source.

This is important to remember in US energy debates.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 10:30:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is fairly counterintuitive indeed.

If you gasoline consumption indeed doesn't drop, cet. par. you still end up with less money to spend. Should we expect a backlash from other actors of the car industry if taxes were to be raised? The other thing may be that cars allows for the creation of a constituency.. and so any attempt at raising gas taxes may allow you to be undercut electorally.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 10:47:37 AM EST
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It probably depends on what the money's used for.

Smokers are a minority in American society, and political cost of sticking it to them on taxes is fairly low.  The thing about people who complain about taxes is that they are most often the least engaged in politics, and the least likely to vote.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 11:29:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that the degree to which energy demand in the US is inelastic, specifically with reference to home electric and gasoline for transportation has just begun to dawn on US policymakers.

Well at some point it's going to have to become a lot more elastic

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 10:55:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you know that the market will provide?  Once gasoline becomes expensive enough, then ethanol, oil shale, and coal to gas will become competitive.

Of course, maybe standard economics is bunk because it supposes that consumers have a choice in the short term about how much they spend on gas.  It's not like buying a new car, or moving to another house closer to work is something that can be done overnight.  These sorts of repsonses to the market occur only in the long term.

And the problem isn't just one of creating demand, it's one of supply.  It's much more difficult to purchase a fuel efficient car in the United States than in Europe.  Now that's going to change as Detroit retools and the GM Volt plug in hybrid and other vehicles come out.  But those cars aren't going to start coming off the factory line until 2009 or later.  

Secondly, the patter of urban sprawl in America means that walking or taking the bus simply isn't a choice in most American cities.  And in larger cities, older urban neighborhoods that are walkable often have little or nothing in the way of grocery stores and other basic commerical services.  Tesco has announced that it's going to enter the US market, and try to establish itself in the small store urban market.  However, the other big problem is that many of these urban neighborhoods are desprately poor and have horrendous crime rates.

Do you really think that families with small children are going to move to neighborhoods where there are open air crack markets and drive by shootings because the price of gasoline has gone up?  Of course not, you'd have to be on crack to believe that.

But then orthodox economists seem to believe that this is the way that the world works.  I'll let you draw your conclusions from that.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 11:42:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the non-elasticity of U.S. energy demand is overstated. It's easy enough for practically anybody to carpool, which can quadruple your effective MPG with hardly any effort. Today's bus service is horrible in most places, but that can be fixed by buying busses.

Crack neighborhoods turn into regentrified neighborhoods when the value of the housing changes. This certainly doesn't happen overnight, but it can happen in, say, a couple of years.

In the 1970s there was a huge push for energy-efficient houses and cars, and if the adjusted price of energy goes up again, there will be another such push. The technology for off-grid or nearly off-grid housing is available and not tremendously expensive.

From a technical viewpoint, this is not an impossible problem to solve. From a political viewpoint, it probably is impossible, though.

by asdf on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 11:20:17 PM EST
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Home energy demand is far more more elastic than gasoline demand. Driving the car to work or not is a binary choice, but home energy consumption, whether it's the temperature of the thermostat or how often the lights are turned on, is not. Also cutting back energy use at home isn't necessarily a loss of status as it can often be hidden from your peer competitors.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 12:56:07 PM EST
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