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It seems clear that
  1. the banks figured out their own balance sheets were full of worthless assets
  2. they then said "well, if my balance sheet is this ugly, imagine the neighbour's" and the credit crunch started
  3. they then proceeded to delay the recognition of their losses for as long as possible - there was a first round of this when quarterly results were published in September, and there will be more rounds each quarter
  4. quarterly results are not audited, but yearly ones are - things will get interesting when auditors force the recognition of losses, or give negative opinions on the accounts, when the annual reports are published


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 12:23:31 PM EST
Oh, and the US housing market hasn't crashed yet, nor have we seen massive defaults in the underlying subprime mortgages. This is a crisis of confidence, not a reaction to fundamentals. The worse is yet to come.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 12:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks, Miguel. For those of us who are only quasi-literate in econospeak, the above helps.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 01:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do the banks mostly run their years to the same dates?
i.e. is the Sword of the Auditor going to fall at the same time on a large number of institutions?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Nov 2nd, 2007 at 05:36:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That depends on what the company's fiscal year is, so it is really up to them. But fiscal years tend to match either the calendar year (to December) or the tax year (to April). Now,

Wikipedia: Form 10-K

Historically, Form 10-K had to be filed with the SEC within 90 days after the end of the company's fiscal year. However, in September 2002, the SEC approved a Final Rule that changed the deadlines to 75 days for Form 10-K for "accelerated filers"; meaning issuers that have a public float of at least $75 million, that have been subject to the Exchange Act's reporting requirements for at least 12 calendar months, that previously have filed at least one annual report, and that are not eligible to file their quarterly and annual reports on Forms 10-QSB and 10-KSB. These shortened deadlines were to be phased in over a three-year period, however in 2004 the SEC postponed the three-year phase in by one year. In December 2005, the SEC created a third category of "large accelerated filers," accelerated filers with a public float of over $700 million. As of December 27, 2005, the deadline for filing for large accelerated filers was still 75 days, however beginning with the fiscal year ending on or after December 15, 2006, the deadline will be 60 days. For other accelerated filers the deadline will remain at 75 days and for non-accelerated filers the deadline will remain at 90 days. For further reading, see the Final Rules [1] section of the SEC's website, referencing Rule 33-8644.
means that for those US financial institutions whose fiscal year runs to December we'll know in March, and for those whose fiscal year runs to mid-April we'll know in July.

However, the point is not who originated the mortgages, but who is holding the Commercial Paper. When I was in Spain recently people told me things like "Spanish banks like Santander appear to have been more prudent lenders", and I replied "it matters not whether Santander created a lot of subprime themselves, but how much US-generated subprime-backed 'commercial paper' of dubious value they bought in the global capital markets and is now sitting on their balance sheet".

When defaults start really getting out of control then yes, the banks that did the original lending will lose the revenue that they intend to pass on to whoever bought their Commercial Paper and they will have a cash flow problem. If the credit/liquidity crisis is still going on then, they'll be in a pinch just like Northern Rock.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 3rd, 2007 at 05:35:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"it matters not whether Santander created a lot of subprime themselves, but how much US-generated subprime-backed 'commercial paper' of dubious value they bought in the global capital markets and is now sitting on their balance sheet".

... or for what amount highly leveraged private equity or hedge funds that bought such papers were financed by them...

... or how many clients have "guaranteed sell back" clauses in their agreements to purchase subprime stuff form Santander...

... or how much financing was provided by Santander to real estate and construction groups whose business model was underpinned by cheap credit to finance their buyers...

That last one is particularly sensitive for Spanish banks, given the extent of the construction boom in Spain. I'm still not convinced that the Spanish housing bubble is worse than in the UK, given that there was a lot of genuine catching up to do in Spain, and the Spanish construction groups have been pretty good lately at recycling their bubble profits into acquisitions in other countries (useful diversification), but the end of this cycle will have to hurt anyway.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sat Nov 3rd, 2007 at 06:48:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Swedish banks are saying the same... Though I actually believe them, only the investment banks might/should be in trouble.

And there might be some issues with the exposure to Baltic markets.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Nov 4th, 2007 at 02:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am not convinced that the big auditors have changed much since Enron.  Someone, somewhere would have written up a ´note´ to financial statements about risk in the past 6 years, no?  

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Sat Nov 3rd, 2007 at 01:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, after Enron they don't have the overt conflicts of interest, so at least the Auditors have plausible deniability and can now pretend they "could not have known".

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Nov 3rd, 2007 at 02:43:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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