And, as we know at least since Keynes (who put them at the center of his macroeconomic theory), expectations drive the economy...

But do they?

Sure, my expectation that house prices will keep rising is a principal factor behind my decision to borrow as much as I can so I can flip it at a quick profit etc etc.

So, yes expectations drive asset prices upwards, which affects the amount of money in issue, and some leaks out into circulation.

But retail prices are different IMHO.

I don't believe yer average Joe Blow thinks:

"In my view, petrol, cornflakes, cigarettes and booze are going to rise 10% in the next year, therefore I want a pay rise".

I believe he thinks:

"Shit: petrol, cornflakes and booze have all gone up in the last year, therefore I want a pay rise."

And the JoeBlowCo Plc management think:

"Shit: our staff costs have gone up, and so have those pesky interest rates, (which the Central Bank has just raised in order to control inflation), never mind energy costs and the rest.

I must maintain my profit margin, and therefore I'll try and increase my prices."

Result, if they succeed: inflation.

ie maybe profits are de facto the principal component of inflation.

In other words, I think that retail price inflation is driven less by inflationary expectations, and rather more by past experience.