Briefly on the anecdotal evidence - in the 60s and 70s the U.S. data was ingenuous, so to speak. Between the WWII-fostered U.S. economic strength and the relative naivete of the political class at that time, the statistics were simple and to-the-point. In the early 70s some left-leaning academics were estimating that the post-benefit (uncounted) group already duplicated the number of unemployed being counted in the UR - primarily UE benefits recipients. I can't cite at this date, but Chomsky and Staughton Lynd come to mind.
The second anecdotal piece comes from my experience with friends and acquaintances over the years. During recession - including recessions that aren't called recessions - I know more people on UE benefits, past UE benefits, and homeless than in better economic times. I know more people today in these categories than in quite a long time. Best that I can do for the discussion, but you seem to be carrying the ball quite well in any case.
The one thing that I will mention about Williams' company is that his predictions from last December for related economic activity in 2007 are the basis for my interest in his overall work. Until recently, I was not a subscriber, but his work pops up in his Archives after so many months, and the archives can be accessed without subscription. As soon as I saw the December piece, I decided to subscribe, partly because I am going to strongly consider his advice in the current situation. paul spencer
