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I do not think the strategy is to respond with nuclear weapons: They will do that if and only if they are attacked.
Given that they have starting arming Iran for real with some decent (conventional) missiles, I suspect their scenerio for an open US attack on Iran is to savage the US Air Force--now a possibility--and send the US Fleet to the bottom--now a likelihood. In this scenerio US control of the Middle East collapses--though who then lobs what at whom is an open question.
Obviously they will not provoke this scenerio, but they do seem to be preparing for it, as the US is likely to provoke it.
Chris' scenerio would be rational, but that is the whole problem with it: In six years of misgovernance, the Bush administration and the backers behind it have exuded a total stink of panic over losing global hegemony. They do not seek wealth; they seek domination, and this precludes all co-operative solutions.
Narcissistic control freaks and macho losers--the Brit Guy's image gets it about right.
the Russians and the Chinese have a strategy. The problem is: What is it? I do not think the strategy is to respond with nuclear weapons: They will do that if and only if they are attacked.
I think the Chinese have a very full domestic plate right now- they may have a strategy, but I'd bet they will diddle away the opportunity to employ it effectively. Russia- a different kettle of fish. A smart diplomatic approach might be to share power there. They may see their best interests as grabbing major authority in the structure. Empires often share power- one of the safer ways to deal with them is to be nasty enough to motivate some healthy fear,-- and then deal. Pure speculation, true.
Nukes have no utility in this process, as I said in my reply to Chris cook. No rational targeting options.
The allocation mechanism will happen, because it is essential--it's only a question of the right opportunity- the right "shock therapy" moment. From a totally Machiavellian point of view, the coming Iran event could be the perfect moment. Look what they did with 9/11. Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
The economic shock therapy is happening as we speak.
I liked Jerome's car crash analogy, what's happened so far is the driver hitting the screen and dashboard as he slams the brakes on without a belt: the crash itself is about to happen...
A US Suez moment.
Co-operation will then be the only way out: domination is no longer an option.
The current power structure that drives the empire is composed of fabulously wealthy, isolated and privileged men, with political views that Mussolini would feel comfortable with. In Cheney's case, the work of his lifetimes is crumbling before this eyes, he is dying and he will not get another chance. The motivation to engage in draconian action as well as reality modification is powerful-and so are they. You and Jerome (and many others) think that the bill has finally come due, and the ship of state is broke. I think you're both wrong- I think they are not out of options yet, and the level of barbarity that could emerge as the great beast scrapes the bottom of the barrel, and flails it's last could be really nasty. The death throes could take a long time, and drag the world down with it.
Apocalyptic? Yes. Admitted. I think Bush is a weak man and a "believer", and that Cheney and the Neocons would rather die than admit. Bad combo.
If any (or all) of us had written a piece that, based on careful analysis and historic precedent, had predicted the actions of the empire over the last 7 years, we'd have been committed for treatment. Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
To me, the "Epiphany" was the realisation that a 19 year old - by inventing music file sharing - had single-handedly destroyed the business model of the global music industry.
The same - through instant money/value messaging and decentralised linked "clearing" of obligations - will apply to global payments within five years at the outside.
This process is outside anyone's control. Those currently at the top of the heap are just going to have to make do with a smaller piece of a bigger pie.
As John Gilmore almost said - he spoke of censorship:
"The Internet interprets Banks as damage and routes around them."
There is a "Telluric" change taking place beneath our feet, and IMHO the "Napsterisation" of Society will change the world for the better - and just in time.
fratboyocracy... The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
