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   Reasonably, it is gradually becoming more developed and competitive. More options are becoming available for property buyers in Hungary, both for locals and foreign buyers. With a maximum loan to value of 80% for new and off-plan property and 70% for re-sale property, Hungary still has some way to go before its mortgage market offers the choice that can be found in the more mature lending markets of Western Europe or the US.
    ...
    Finance is available, but not too much of it. What I mean by this is that 70% to 80% mortgages are available, not 100% mortgages which are readily available in countries like the UK, Ireland, and Spain.

    Where is the plus point here? For the investor who takes a medium to long term view on the Hungarian property market this is excellent news.

    If everybody who qualified for a mortgage in Hungary could do so just by putting down a small deposit or even no deposit at all, and if interest rates were low, there is no doubt that the market would be experiencing a major boom right now. This boom would be driven both by domestic demand and foreign investors and prices would soar. This is not happening, yet! If it was you would be purchasing too late and would have missed out on a lot of growth.

    Are interest only mortgages available?

    Yes. There is a type of interest only mortgage available. It is interest only for the first 5 years then becomes a repayment mortgage in year six. This is a new development on the Hungarian mortgage market and a sign that it is developing.
    ...

    Interest only is new in Hungary we believe that it will catch on.

No little Hungary, no no nooooooooooooo!, says Hamburger over at MoA from whom I shamelessly stole this post -- hat tip, hat tip, hat tip and flowers.  (I altered the emphasis just a tad.)

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Sun Nov 4th, 2007 at 06:56:12 PM EST
Surreal.

Let's all go insane, shall we?

Meanwhile - would you buy a used bank from this man?

Charles Prince (and who with a name like that could be anything other than leathery and patrician?) has been resigned (sic) from Citigroup for not being profitable enough.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Nov 4th, 2007 at 07:24:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ugh.

You made me check some articles in the local press on the subject -- and I found local estate traders advocating the same. Uuuugh. Whether the government and big banks will follow suit, we will see.

At any rate, Hungary had a housing downturn in the last 2-3 years, and analysts say a present upturn is just a blip before further downturn. So the urge to use some booster might prove irresistible... unless the US/British example will blow up spectacularly enough for the local yahoos to notice.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 06:27:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the demography of Hungary ? is it similar to other countries in that it has a stable or slowly diminishing population ? Because it is much harder to get a bubble going with decreasing demand...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 06:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Slowly decreasing population, but the demand would still be there, with so many people in all the decrepit concrete block (plattenbau) apartment blocks, not to mention inner-city and older village houses in need of refurbishment (or in waste capitalism: replacement with newer brighter larger homes); plus still on-going longer-term developments like urbanisation and the atomisation of greater families (grandparents-multiple sons/daughters-grandchildren) that not seldom lived in the same house.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 06:47:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Same thing is being spoken about in bulgaria, except it won't happen cos the banking industry is too weak to be able to afford idiocy.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 07:53:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
too weak to be able to afford idiocy

there's something important about that idea.

something about hypernutrition producing distortion and dysfunction, aka resource glut producing insanity, maybe related to the notorious foolishness and irrelevance of hereditary aristos after the Nth generation (some say 2 or 3) and the notorious lapse into frivolity and psychotic delusions of grandeur in the elite of wealthy empires...

too much affluence/security makes us not only complacent but stupid?

hmmmm (food for thought)

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 04:00:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Someone I know suggested recently that dictatorship is the inevitable outcome of too much peace and stability. Unless democracy is rock solid, it's too easy for predators to start bending and eventually breaking the rules to their own advantage. Too much of the population will either be unknowing or actively complicit, and the ones who aren't can be pruned of influence easily enough.

I don't completely agree, but it's an interesting point.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 04:15:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any system will be stressed to the breaking point. If the sistem is fragile it will yield locally but if it is very resilient if will accumulate stress over its whole structure and when it breaks the whole think will break catastrophically.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 05:19:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So some inflation is good, because it keeps us on our toes... After 25 years of no inflation, expectations become that there won't be, and risk taking can be more aggressive.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 04:10:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought low inflation meant that the "required rate of return" to beat inflation by a reasonable margin is lower and so you need to take on less risk. In fact, that low inflation and low interest rates make low-risk investment viable.

What is wrong with this reasoning?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 05:30:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But as everybody now expects a fixed return on your capital (the mythological 15%), the lower inflation is, the higher the rate that return can be compounded over the years, and the more wealth can be captured today, via the miracle of Net Present Value.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 05:56:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let us again state explicitly that 'inflation' is conventionally seen to arise from wage-'inflation', while growth in return on investment, or of asset 'value', is not seen to drive up 'inflation', but is wonderful good and great 'growth' that is required and beneficial. 'Inflation' as defined by the neolibs being specifically designed to ensure that inequality is increased and wealth capture can proceed at optimal rates, and then happily be referred to as wealth creation. The constant return of the threat of 'inflation' can be mobilized to ensure that money keeps flowing to the right people, and doesn't end up with the scum at the bottom, who would not 'invest' it properly anyway.
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 06:14:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
thank you. For me that is a moment of clairty.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 08:06:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Net Present Value is not a bad idea until you realise that the discount rate is wholly arbitrary.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 06:33:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not arbitrary. It's a rational market assessment, and not bad fortune telling at all.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 08:24:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Umm, no. The "discount rate" includes things like the "required rate of return" which depends on nothing else but the greed of the investors.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 08:27:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed.

Hence 'rational market assessment.'

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 09:33:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now you're being facetious :-)

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 09:36:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The worst problem with the discount rate (from a financial perspective), is that it is simply pulled out of the yield curve. It's a poll, like all implicit market observables. Take thousands of educated traders and observe their crowd behavior: you get idiot forecast, because the IQ of a crowd goes like the inverse of its size, regardless of the IQ distribution of its individuals.

On the particular of the yield curve, the only part where some serious forecasting gets into it is IMHO the first 5 years, because all traders are short sighted. If actual sensible inflation trends over 20/30 years were priced in, long term rates should be 40% and the states would quickly rediscover the virtue of balanced budgets.

As to what this would do to the markets, well they would get even more greedy and short-termist actually, because the tail-end of future cash flows would be totally worthless. But at least the greediest would exit the home mortgage market since it's very long duration.

Pierre

by Pierre on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 10:22:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
too much affluence/security makes us not only complacent but stupid?

kidding, right?

o yes, definitely

most assuredly so...

a little hunger is a fine stimulus.

the predator class raise their children in a bubble, on koolaide.

there's no neurotic like rich-neurotic!

the kind of 'solidarity' they share is inauthentic, based on class.

if the poor are miserable, they know whom to blame, the rich have only therapy...

'relax, you're rich, you can afford to....'

lol

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Nov 5th, 2007 at 05:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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