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I was talking to some division manager for stocks at Goldman sacks yesterday, saying that I was puzzled at the theory that one couldn't beat the market. If it were true, I tried to imply, there would be way more big player in the sector. He just said that the theory said that was true over time, and that anyway some people are better than others.

At some point he said, ' anyway, over time, the market goes up, that's what we see historically. What matters really is household consumption'.

I just said that well, Japan's stock exchange still isn't half of what he used to be in the 1990's, twenty years later. We dropped that subject, and someone mentioned the average level of debt in the US... he said 'that certainly can't go on'.

'So how could stocks always go up if it can't go on?'

Silence.

I ask, how's the variation of the value of the dollar going to affect your job, and he replies with basic theory, 'well it's going to help export companies, etc'.
At that point I wondered if he knew how much change there has been on that front: the canadian dollar is now at par, the euro double value in 5 years. He seemed genuinely surprised.

About the canadian dollar, he said, 'that's funny, I thought that since their economy was so intertwined with ours, that the exchange rate wouldn't change too much'. I point out that a lot of the dollar's values comes from the trust in the US economy and government. 'They certainly lost that, he said'. Again silence.

The dots just don't connect. Information doesn't spread. They must have their noses on the handlebar, as we say in french. Can't see anything else...


Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 08:39:10 AM EST
UnEstranAvecVueSurMer:

At that point I wondered if he knew how much change there has been on that front: the canadian dollar is now at par, the euro double value in 5 years. He seemed genuinely surprised.

Excellent post. It makes the point that these 'Masters of the Universe' are really just clueless sheep.

One unusually bright sheep devises a scheme to fleece the sheep in the other field, and they all trot along obediently, thinking, saying and doing the same things.

If no one points out there's a cliff in the way, they'll walk right off it with a surprised who-could-have-expected-that look.

I think we really do give these people far more respect than they're really due. There will always be exceptions, but en masse you can pretty much rely on them to be this clueless.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 05:12:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Canadian (and even more so the Australian) dollar is strengthened by high commodity prices. Dutsch disease.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 06:07:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure I get it. High commodity price is high natural resources price?

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine
by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 07:38:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's what I meant.

Wrong word, sorry.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 08:27:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok thanks

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine
by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 08:43:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have to be fair. The manager I mentioned just sent me an email with a few articles about the subprime mortagage 'crisis'. He didn't comment much, but at least he was interested in finding out more.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine
by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 10:50:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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