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some technical analysts think the dollar is nearing its bottom

They put the "anal" in analysts I think, because it is their fundament these wishful thinkers are talking out of IMHO.

The $ is looking into a black hole - that's for sure...

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 02:04:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this basically condemn 60-something year olds who have virtually all of their savings in U.S. dollars to retire in the U.S. or countries whose currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar (either directly or effectively)?  (I am talking about those retirees who calculated and managed to save just enough to last them through their retirement years, but who could not afford to lose significant amounts of that in unfavorable transfers of their savings to stronger currencies.)

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 03:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess that the good news is that I only feel comparatively decrepit, so I can still pump gas or flip burgers.

My only regret is that visiting Europe is going to be very painful due to my frugal nature - which is to say that I am known as the king of 'cheap' in my county.

Nonetheless, I'm still willing and able - at this point - to help to bootstrap think-tanks and such like.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 03:39:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And since the U.S. imports just about everything except food staples, TV, and housing these days, the cost of most things will be going up faster than inflation even for those who stay.

My wife and I visited Switzerland for 2 weeks in 1985, and I had been there alone several times in the early 80's.  Never again I think.

One thing I have been doing over the last few years is being heavily invested in non-US stock mutual funds.  (DODFX, AEPGX, etc)  The question is should I move some cash there too?

by NHlib on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 05:04:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
do we try to hire Migeru to create a hedge fund for dollars?  Or do we maybe try to hire Migeru to set up the ET Consultants Semi-anonymous LLP (or C)?  I'm for either or both.

Question - Japanese yen seem to be strongly undervalued.  What would the risks be in that currency?  I will point out one aspect - we just about cannot spend it in Japan, because they have jimmied the books from a different angle.  Everything there - in the big cities at least - is overpriced.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 05:30:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tell me about the accursedly undervalued yen!  You Europeans get a fifty percent drop, yet the yen, my sole source of income, has yet to return to its 2004 levels!

I have a bunch of yen, and debt in the US, and I'm just waiting to cash in on the final day of reckoning.

Actually, sometimes I wonder how much I should bet on this.  I do have massive, untapped credit card reserves . . .

by Zwackus on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 10:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You Europeans get a fifty percent drop, yet the yen, my sole source of income, has yet to return to its 2004 levels!

yup.  i waited, and waited, and waited for a time when the yen would "bounce back" against the euro so i could convert some for long term savings.  never happened.  so i just bit it and exchanged at 155 yen to the euro some time last spring.  frikking outrageous.  i'm convinced that if it weren't for the sorry dollar, the yen would be much higher against the euro.

I have a bunch of yen, and debt in the US, and I'm just waiting to cash in on the final day of reckoning.

but the yen is still fairly strong against the dollar.  in fact, at this rate, i would have converted my yen into dollars if i wanted to pay off U.S. dollar debts.  (now i'm just praying the Bank of China doesn't adjust the yuan basket unfavorably with respect to the yen.)

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Thu Nov 8th, 2007 at 06:36:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that Japan still has a strong export economy, I suspect this may be deliberate government policy or something.
by Zwackus on Thu Nov 8th, 2007 at 06:19:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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