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If the Chinese dump the dollar in favor of the euro, then they have the effect of placing an enormous burden on the ability of their best customer to purchase their products.  I would take significant redirection of Chinese trade from the American market to European or other markets to be a more serious indicator that something is amiss.

Europe is a bigger market for China than the US, now - and imports are growing faster too.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 03:09:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome,

What happens if European exporters suddenly face dropping returns for their exports in the US?  

Capital goods aside, the luxury good market is important and arguably very subject to rising prices.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 03:20:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Europe has survived the near halving of the value of the dollar over the past 6 years reasonably well, so where's the breaking point?

Luxury goods, as positional goods, tend to have negative price elasticity - ie the more expensive they are, the better they sell because they get even more exclusive (which is what you buy).

Airbus suffers. Some manufacturers suffer. Others are price-makers (cf - wind turbine manufacturers ...) Many have booming markets in Europe and the Middle East. Many enjoy cheaper inputs thanks to the lower dollar.

There's no obvious breaking point, if at all.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 06:12:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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