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The dollar will recover it's poise in due course, the USA's real economy is still quite strong.

The dollar as currently constituted is finished.

The crash coming will be as dramatic as that at the end of the Japanese bubble and there is still a long way to fall. The difference will be that there will be stagflation in the US, not chronic deflation as in Japan.

The underlying US economy is potentially strong, for sure, but where will the money come from to mobilise it? The one thing I do know is, it won't be in dollars as we know them.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 05:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Yen is still there after many years of stagnation.  The US has a long history of devaluing the dollar as a way of correcting huge government and trade imbalances.  Their problem is that the Chinese are refusing to let them play that game unhindered.  At the moment the EU central bank is being suckered into taking all the strain - something which will ultimately cause recession in Europe if not corrected soon.

The US economy is still growing faster than the EU - and current currency movements will only exacerbate that divergence unless the EU reduces interest rates sufficiently to halt any further appreciation of the Euro.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 07:11:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US growth is illusory.
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 07:25:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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