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loans with teaser (that is, artificially, temorarily low) rates.  When the higher rates kick in, which they WILL DO since that is specified in the contract, the homeowners will be over their heads.  A majority of THEM will default.  What happens then is fun speculation but we are talking way more than 5 % or 10 % defaults.  

This industry is set to crash and burn.  

WE don't KNOW that the banks are insolvent (though we think they are) because they will not let us see their books.  If we saw their books we THEN would know.  

But they are not fools:  There is no way they would let us see their books.  How bad is it?  Based on how rotten their own position is, they are not willing to other banks whose position is likely as bad.  

And is that not bad enough for you?  What more, really, do you need to know?  

If you were a rich foreigner holding dollars, why would you buy into these insolvent banks?  Well, your dollars are going to lose value no matter what you do.  By buying pieces of the financial system before the dollar loses value, you might--while taking the inevitable loss--acquire control.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sun Dec 16th, 2007 at 09:20:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgive my ignorant layman's question - this stuff always makes my head spin. But if you buy an insolvent bank, haven't you just bought yourself a dud business worth nothing? Don't insolvent banks ever get wound up? How do you get 'control' in those circumstances?
by wing26 on Mon Dec 17th, 2007 at 02:02:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An insolvent bank is one whose liabilities exceed its assets, but both assets and liabilities include future cash flows which are estimated and discounted to a present value so the extent to which the company is insolvent is can change if the basis of estimation changes.

The people who have bought into these banks have not bought when all shares in the open market (which keeps the balance sheet unchanged. I presume effectively the bank has issued them with new shares, and if they inject enough capital to make the bank barely solvent everything can keep running.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 17th, 2007 at 04:07:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the banks themselves really don't know where they stand. All the complexity around the new instruments and the on-off balance sheet operations has contributed fog to an already opaque situation. What good is it showing your books if you can't assess the quality of a large portion of your assets?
by vladimir on Mon Dec 17th, 2007 at 07:34:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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