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... if, indeed, it is the establishment of a new technological channel, then twenty years from now, when it becomes clear what are the common features shared between those waves of innovation and later waves of innovation in the same technological channel, it seems highly likely that we can point to those waves of innovation and say, "this one was an important pre-cursor", and "this one is the critical breakthrough laying the foundation for our current economic regime".

Lots of waves of innovation are billed as the next really, really big deal. Far fewer are.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Dec 31st, 2007 at 12:11:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not so much interested in the retrospective historical impact, but more in the quantitative information about vawes of new investment and the distribution of sizes, durations, and possible cascades of investment adding up to large waves.

Looking at it from the paradigm of self-organised criticality, in other words.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 09:59:08 AM EST
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