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First off, I'm sorry to inform you that you've most likely been scammed. 'Mary Rose' was treating you to what's known as a warm reading. It's not particularly difficult, I am told - any huckster with a reasonable acting talent and a knack for reading body language can learn to do it in the space of a couple of months.

Further, you state that such a medium - should they exist - would not be susceptible to any sort of proof. I disagree with that assertion. I can easily design an experimental setup that would provide at least a preliminary validation of a psychic's prowess: Just find an interesting piece of information that relates to a person, but which he does not know himself. Then have the diviner attempt to divine it.

This could be any kind of information, but it should be agreed upon ahead of time and it is an absolute requirement that precise information is given and in a form that precludes self-fulfilling prophesies. The question could be "will my brother marry within the next five years, and if so, on what year and day will he marry and who will he marry?" The psychic could then write a note saying 'no, your brother will not marry within five years,' put the note in an envelope and put the envelope in a strongbox in a bank. Five years later, or when your brother marries, you fetch the note and look at it.

Of course you would have to repeat such an experiment a large number of times to be able to determine whether the psychic is right significantly more often than tossing a die or flipping a coin would be, and you might want to put more elaborate controls in place, but the basic experimental setup could be used essentially unchanged.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 26th, 2007 at 11:54:28 AM EST
Jake, I am aware of all that: and you, my Danish compatriot (although I'm only 50% Dane!) are probably as sceptical now as I was when I met the lady.

I merely recounted one small part of my experience with Mary Rose. Sure one could set up experiments to check up on these things, particularly in respect of the charlatans out there - and I am sure there are many. This lady makes no "claims", she did not advertise, and people came to her purely through word of mouth.

This was entirely different to my expectations: you really had to be there. There was no script, it was quite matter of fact: she didn't ask me anything about anything. She actually volunteers things which come into her mind, using the cards as an aid.

And there was IMHO no "rational" way that she could have come up with what she did.

But then that's just my opinion.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Dec 26th, 2007 at 12:28:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While I cannot, since the documentation is no longer available, analyse what happened in that tent with forensic precision, what you write sounds more like a warm reading than anything remotely extraordinary. I don't doubt that you experienced something, but experience does not substitute for controlled experiment when it comes to being persuasive, and given the number of fly-by-night psychics and mediums (and the paucity of credible ones) I am disinclined to give this one the benefit of the doubt.

- Jake

The plural of anecdote is not data.

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 26th, 2007 at 03:26:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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