I have gradually come to realise that our polictical classes must be some of the worst informed political junkies going. Example after example proves they don't know anything except what their minions and flunkies tell them. And if the flunky feels there will be problems in contradicting policy with reality, the lords and masters never get told about it.
Still, it goes to prove that,despite the NIE, Bush hasn't changed the policy, else UK & Germany would have laid off the war drums.
Which suggests that maybe war will be arranged to give the GOP a good bounce coming into the post-primary presidential season. Suddenly 9ui11iani seems like a good long-odds bet. keep to the Fen Causeway
Judging by my own personal experience of the difference between public announcements in Iran about projects and the actual reality, I doubt whether Iran would ever be able to progress to a nuclear weapon without significant foreign assistance.
Iran suffers from a cosmic level of public managerial incompetence: much worse than the UK, and that is saying something. "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky