The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
There is a distinct difference for Senator Clinton in finishing second and finishing third in Iowa ... finishing third in Iowa will result in her taking a substantial hit in New Hampshire, and with the short time frame, there is time for exactly one cycle of post-IA polling and poll results before the NH primary.
That's why my scenario one was, suppose that one (of six possible) configurations, followed by Senator Clinton finishing third in NH behind a surging Edwards chasing a rising Obama.
As far as a 15% gap ... if that's the gap, that's just at the edge of the "Iowa bump" that can be received in NH from a strong victory in Iowa. But in a three way race, he only needs an eight point bump with an eight point drop by Senator Clinton to cross into second place, and with his "third, two lengths back" position all of 2007, a second place finish would be positive news for Edwards ... obviously, though, winning NH would be massive for Obama.
However, that's NH ... where there has been a lot of political engagement for months. For the balance of the country,
Her 20% lead in all the other early states (bar South Carolina) gives her a huge cushion against possible "bandwagon" and other defections.
The Iowa caucuses is when everyone else starts tuning in, and if it upsets people's vague impression that she's the front-runner, and that is then confirmed in NH, all of her campaign messaging from 2007 is flushed down the dunny.
OTOH, if she wins IA, she wins NH, and she has the nomination in the bag, so while she is the least likely to win the IA caucuses, she definitely has the clearest run to the nomination still.
I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 21 24 comments
by Cat - Feb 18 11 comments
by ATinNM - Feb 6 22 comments
by Oui - Feb 12 16 comments
by Oui - Jan 26 3 comments
by Oui - Feb 14 1 comment
by gmoke - Feb 13
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 5 10 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 2124 comments
by Cat - Feb 1811 comments
by Oui - Feb 177 comments
by Oui - Feb 141 comment
by gmoke - Feb 13
by Oui - Feb 1216 comments
by Oui - Feb 12
by Oui - Feb 86 comments
by Oui - Feb 71 comment
by ATinNM - Feb 622 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 510 comments
by Oui - Feb 42 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 254 comments
by Cat - Feb 18 comments
by Oui - Feb 1
by Oui - Feb 129 comments
by Oui - Jan 302 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 2936 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 2811 comments
by Oui - Jan 263 comments