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I'm more used to following Irish and European elections where a 5% swing is considered big.  Obviously if Iowa can swing NH by 8% in a few days you are talking about a far more volatile situation - surprising to me given the level of engagement there for months.  They must be down to the last few voters they haven't met yet!

I wouldn't be as surprised with bigger swings in later states where voters haven't really engaged yet and are just parroting media received wisdoms.  Most people like to back a winner.

However my purpose in writing this diary was to try to have a more evidenced based discussion of likely outcomes and obviously polls don't measure everything - and the RCP ones don't show undecideds, most likely voters etc.

That is partly why I plumped for Huckabee - despite conflicting evidence - because of a sense that the "Christian" vote will have a much higher turnout.

You have to overlay the bare figures with a bit o local savvy which I simply don't have, but am interested in acquiring more of!  Many thanks for your informed comments.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 29th, 2007 at 11:10:02 PM EST
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... coming out of IA ... but I have seen arguments that that was composed of a bump coming out of Iowa and then a success in following-up in New Hampshire, where there won't be much time for the second part this year.

In any event, a 12% immediate bump following a strong IA victory would be no real surprise. However, the challenge for Edwards coming first in New Hampshire is that even if he finishes first, the second place candidate could well get a small bump out of beating the third place candidate, so Edwards could be chasing a rising target, in either case.

The intangible there is that Edwards framing and campaign messaging is the most direct one to get across to a Democratic primary audience, so he might be able to get more than the ordinary NH bump just out of the flurry of coverage the evening of and the morning after an IA win.

But right now, its just too close to call for a caucus, given that even if we knew the first preferences going in, we wouldn't know the results coming out. Add to that the fact that both Clinton and Obama are banking on large numbers of supporters who have never caucused before, and Thursday can't come soon enough for me.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Dec 29th, 2007 at 11:52:21 PM EST
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