But this situation in the Middle East might be familiar to Yugoslavia in the beginning of 1990's: it looked so quiet there for decades, communism has just collapsed, and then... nationalistic wars, genocide. The Middle East might indeed be a dynamite that George W. is fussing. Even if he would be immediately excluded (due to impeachement or so), the Middle East might be about to enter a hell beyond anyone's imagination.

Can anyone tell how these plots are real?

It's no coincidence that the Iran/Hezbollah/Syria axis decided now was the right moment to openly challenge the western-leaning democratic government in Lebanon. [...] If Syria goes with Iran then Lebanon is toast and Israel will look to Jordon and Egypt to join with them in a joint defense of Lebanon against Syria and, if necessary Iran as well. Because for Israel, a Syria and Lebanon controlled by Iran would be unacceptable.

The Iranians clearly see that scenario as a real possibility, which why they are racing to get a working nuclear weapon - to make Israel think twice before taking a swing at them.

More clues emerged last week when King Hussein of Jordon announced that he'd like his country to begin its own "civilian" nuclear program - like Iran's. Why? Because he too sees something awful his way comes.

And let us not forget those Ottoman Turks of WW I. They are still around in todays Turkey. During WW I they tried to exterminate the Armenians. This time they will try to itch another scratch that's been bugging them for decades, the Kurds. Turkey would love to get rid of separatist Kurds once and for all.

The Turks caught the Armenians by surprise and with the upper hand in WW I. The Kurds will not go quietly or as easily. That fight will be particularly bloody. Turkey is a member of NATO, meaning some generals in Belgium are going to face some hard decisions. Internally Turkey itself will be torn to pieces by those who, on one side want to become part of Western Europe and those on the other side whose hearts are with their ancient Muslim roots. Turkey will not likely emerge from such a war as we know it today.

There was a shred of evidence that even George W. Bush may have an inkling he's created a mess that could envelope the whole world. Last week he authorized doubling the size of our strategic oil reserves.

Good idea George, but not nearly enough. We need to go the rest of the way. A fierce storm is brewing. Now is the time to secure all loose gear and batten down our own hatches. Raise taxes, enact standby procedures for mandatory energy conservation. And no "duck and cover" BS. We need to start doing real things to prepare the kind of real shortages that will occur when oil supplies are disrupted.

It took two catastrophic world wars before Europeans got it all out of their system. Hopefully middle easterners can settle it with one.

In some earlier columns by the same author, there are concerns of Bush sanity. But he had an earlier analysis of other world players as well. When you cannot tell or make sense of anyone's (in)actions, that might be not for good.

Prof. Joan Cole is more concerned with Bush' motivations.

Any leaders of a failing war effort are always tempted by a strategy of escalation.