Hm.
It's possible that Bayrou is drawing people from le Pen but in that case only the fringe that votes LePen, not because they share his ideas but because they use him as a warning signal against the establishment.
I think that his votes come from different sources, since 14% is much bigger than the UDF base :
the social-democratic left which is appalled by Sego's repeated gaffes and knows that Bayrou would include it in a new government (this group has increased these last weeks).
I wonder what kind of insurances it has that Bayrou would have its government open to the left. UDF is still a right-wing party, voting with the UMP most of the times. many UDF deputies are indeed announcing their support for Sarko... And a Royal defeat would kill the PS in the parliamentary elections. Who would end up PM ? Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
Douste-Blazy and Borloo are no longer UDF members, as they have joined the UMP. But other UDF members are still clearly right-wing, such as Andre Santini.
Bayrou asked his party deputies to vote against the UMP on some core issues, but they often balked at it. And most of the time, the UDF votes with the government.
The general perception is that parliament elections follow the result of the présidential one. See 2002 ; since Chirac had won, the parliament sent to the Palais Bourbon was right-wing, with barely a campaign made. And even with Bayrou president, the UDF probably can't single-handedly get a majority in the assembly as it has too few incumbents.
Since the parliament in effect has to approve a government's formation, an UDF-UMP majority would end up as a strictly right-wing government. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
