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After the fall, they've never had top class investment so their production may have been somewhat artificially limited by incompetence and lack of investment.

That is in line with what the article says:

"Iran needs to invest more than it does," said Manouchehr Takin, an Iranian energy analyst at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London. "It needs foreign companies to bring expertise, capital and technology."

But oil companies complain that the rewards are limited. Under Iran's stringent buyback contracts, oil companies basically operate as contractors for the government for a limited time. They are not allowed to book the reserves as their own and gain little in extra profits when energy prices go up.

I also just realized that the the translucent cloud around the forecasted oil production projection represents the range of possible severity in the decline.  Nevertheless, consumption seems certain to increase steadily, and so even if production remains (at the most optimistic extreme) more or less flat, Iran's situation seems bound to become more desperate.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue Feb 13th, 2007 at 12:43:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
growing population, 35 cts/gallon gasoline and oil fields that have been in production since before Saudi was found is a bad hand.  Of course, if my idiot govt bombs a few of their refineries, they'll have plenty more crude to export.....Maybe they can get UOP to put their hydrocrackers back together afterward or will it be Brown and Root?
by HiD on Tue Feb 13th, 2007 at 05:36:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, if my idiot govt bombs a few of their refineries, they'll have plenty more crude to export....

Yours and mine.  Complete madness.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue Feb 13th, 2007 at 09:32:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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