I think a unified Iraq is now a lost cause. What the Turks could negotiate for the Kurds would be a discount supply of oil and half control of a pipeline from Kurd-controlled Kirkuk to the Mediterranean or Europe, in exchange for recognition of the state at the least and possibly a referendum to the south-eastern part of Turkey to see where the people wanted to remain: Turkey or a new Kurdish state. Not to mention, I think the long war between Turkey and the PKK could possibly then end.
I recognize that I'm not an expert on this, but it would seem to me that Turkey would gain from a Kurdish state. I think an alliance between Turkey and a Kurdish state might be mutually strategically beneficial. But then, perhaps I am being too naïve of history and world politics?
In Turkey, the situation is even more complicated, since there still exists an imperial "large power" mentality and the military are calling the shots, and their role defending Turkish territorial integrity is a prime directive. Not to mention that chasing seccessionists and "antiturkish terrorists", helps legitimize their broad role in Turkish politics.
Also, note, what the Kurds in Turkey are asking for is autonomy and broad political and cultural rights - as Kurds.
Having said that, the option of giving the Kurds aytonomy and acting as some sort of "guarantor" for a new Kurdish state in N. Iraq, makes a lot of sense, but I don't see Turkish politics being versatile enough to recognize this as a win-win situation... The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
But the uncertain future would be exactly the motivation I would need if I was Turkey to try to peacefully and strategically resolve the differences with the Kurds now. I think nations and peoples are more likely to be peaceful with each other if they have a history of mutually beneficial economic relationships. Such a relationship between Turkey and a Kurdish state could serve as a good foundation for on-going peace after the oil is gone.
I agree that Turkey is unlikely to do anything radical or bold in this area. But I think it is unfortunate that Turkey can't or isn't permitted to play a larger role in the Middle East. Because of and despite of their historic role — the Ottoman Empire — in the past, I feel they could serve an important stabilizing role in parts of the Middle East such as Kurdistan.
Again, I am likely to be way off base here with my assumptions.
When we're discussing degrees of power, democracy, soft force, human rights, etc., in the region, we can't forget that some countries are big, such as Turkey, and they have powerful militaries, and can defend their interests. Others, such as Syria for example, are relatively weak and have become international pariahs for their support of terrorism. However, they too believe they are defending their interests--by what they term the best means possible. So, in that sense, it's hard to see how Turkey and Syria could establish common ground. Turkey has historically seen itself as a power broker not because it is in the Middle East, but because it girds Russia and Eastern Europe, and it lies on a transcontinental root for resources. Other than providing airbases for Western militaries, Turkey really hasn't been a lynchpin in Middle East discussions.
But I will say that the new Turkish PM Erdogan is the first in many years that has aggressively sought close relations with the Arab world. In Turkey sometimes people perceive these new relationships as threats because of Erdogan's party's background with Islam.
Keeping the Kurdish issue alive as a "national threat" (by treating as treason any discussion of Kurdish human rights) is part of the way the political and military elites in Turkey perpetuate their hegemony over society. There's nothing like a permanent internal threat to justify repression, lack of democracy and military involvement in politics. The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
I agree with the idea as well that a Turkish-Kurdish friendship would suit the interest of both peoples. I'm just speculating that the fear of the future is an obstacle for Turkish thinking.
Yes, I see what you mean... However there is a counterargument that if Turkey supports a Kurdish state in Iraq (I mean actively), given that its economy will depend on a large part on Turkey, it might come to a general arrangement, by which it grants autonomy rights to its own Kurds (and possibly apologizes for "past mistakes") and reaches some sort of agreement with the Iraqi Kurds as per not supporting secessionism. In fact were Turkey to play it smart, in an ideal world it will have an active ally in its South and stop the Kurdish insurgency inside its borders.
This is all theoretical, mind you. The current mentality (and the interests noted above), I agree with you, guarantees that no such arrangement is possible - it's not even stateable by a Turkish politician without risking some sort of judicial adventure. The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
