Let's sample Kruger National Park from Wikipedia: Current population (2006): ± 13.500 In 2004: 11,670 elephants (official census)
Rate of change per year: ~900
They estimate Kruger National Park (not the Greater Kruger Area) can hold some 8000 elephants.
On Reproduction:
Females (cows) reach sexual maturity at around 9-12 years of age and become pregnant for the first time, on average, around age 13. They can reproduce until ages 55-60. Females give birth at intervals of about every 5 years. An elephant's gestation (pregnancy) period lasts about 22 months (630-660 days), the longest gestation period of any mammal, after which one calf typically is born. Twins are rare.
I hope that can make you happy.
Arithmetic doesn't make me particularly happy, no. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Pregnancy for 22 months every 5 years for an average of 47 fertile years means on average about 1/4 of females are pregnant at any given time, and under 1/7 of them give birth on any given year.
Assume a 50/50 sex split among the population and you get a birth rate of just over 1/15 per year. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Now extrapolate from 2004 to 2020...
So, what to do with 1000 elephants this year?
And, whatever you do, it's going to cost money to deal with 1000 elephants. If you end up culling them, harvesting the ivory and selling it would cover the costs. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
# sell them to zoos or natural parks elsewhere
Done that. Almost all parks here are already straining or are at their limit, and as stormy writes below, elephants don't travel well.
# release them in the wild where there is an interest in restoring the populations
In the "wild"? Describe that one please... You mean outside reservation and game park fences?
# cull the oldest/sickest animals & selling the ivory
That's my diary about - now all we need is to convince IFAW and the rest of the world.
# allow recreational hunting
Already happening in Game Parks, but prohibited in SANparks - such as Kruger.
I'm at a loss, honestly.
# release them in the wild where there is an interest in restoring the populations In the "wild"? Describe that one please... You mean outside reservation and game park fences?
Yes. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Practically your solution means more designated space for game reserves or to use Melanchton's analogue: a bigger apartment. The creation of game reserves is still happening, but it is often a community effort, making it a long term and only a partial solution to the current problem.
It also is a good opportunity to tie in the other big controversial topic which has just seen SA regulation (a first step?): canned hunting. But I don't have the time today. So I'll have to settle for the short answer.
The short answer is: not all of them are overpopulated on elephants. Here's a Wikipedia list of the National Parks (most of them regulated under SANparks) and Game Reserves under private ownership.
But not all of the private reserves will take elephants - because of private ownership, and the type of tourism you want to attract for your reserve. If you want to have tourists mountainbiking through your reserve, you're not so eager to introduce (traumatized?) elephants (or big cats or rhinoceros or... you see the point). As I understood it in 2003, the National Parks are getting quite overcrowded in elephants - with Kruger the most acute.
So if there are too many elephants around, invite big game hunters to shoot the elephants and demand top dollar for it.
Comparative advantage and all that. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
We have lots of people running around in our forests, shooting 200.000 elks every year. The civilian casualties are usually very small. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
But you need quite a lot of hunters to kill 200.000 elks every year, too. We have a higher per capita gun ownership than the US. Practically every male in the northern two thirds of the country is a hunter.
Vision is far better on the savanna than in the forest too. And it should be a lot harder to confuse an elephant than an elk with a Thai berry picker. Or tourist.
With the right regulation and some common sense, collateral damage should be very limited or non-existent. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
I can't find a pic of it, but there is a sign near my house, I think it's painted on a wall. It says:
You Are Now Entering The Brighton Laines Conversation Area
...which I like...that someone painted it...then maybe a few days later...or months later...stood back, looked at it, frowned...then...slaps head with hand!
...but I liked the idea that it was, indeed a conversation area...too.
;) Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.
Ack!
From Wikipedia:
