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besides this bloc ,in Spain, there is an important segment of the lectorate which does not seem to exist in france or England. A 10% block of purely left-wing voters who hardly vote. There are on million peple in Spain who would never vote a right-wing party. NEVER. OVER their dead bodies... but they almost never vote!.. Creating a narrative of "all are the same" or "media noise" to state that the PSOE president is not worthy is key to block this electorate.
The size of this block is really huge. 3M PSOE voters out of 33M registered voters stayed at home in 2000 as opposed to 1996 or 2000. Participation rates are around 2/3.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 9th, 2007 at 08:13:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I should point out that estimates of a similar block have been showing up in the UK, but due to FPP it doesn't seem to have the same influence on events so far.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Feb 9th, 2007 at 08:24:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that could be very well be the case. thnaks Metatone.

Actually, in Spain the level can reach the 3M people as Mig says in some ocasions.. but the ahrd-core almost never-voting group is around 1M (methinks).
Probably in UK it must be of the same order..and too disperse to have an impact? I dunno
Besides labor is not as left-wing as PSOE is on social,police,judicial, labour and foreign affairs issues.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Feb 9th, 2007 at 09:33:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Besides labor is not as left-wing as PSOE is on social,police,judicial, labour and foreign affairs issues.

True, but what brought it to mind is that it is largely those left-wing voters in the UK who are sitting and not voting for the Labour party.

(A quick explanation in case anyone can't decipher the code, the issue in the UK is that under the First Past the Post system, the spread of the disenfranchised is mostly across "safe Labour seats" and so Tony Blair (for example) loses little by ignoring these people.)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Feb 9th, 2007 at 10:39:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How does this manifest itself in culti-seat PR systems like the EP elections, and the London, Welsh, Scottish, and NI Assemblies?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 9th, 2007 at 10:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I should recant and state that I only really was talking about England.

The Scottish element that was feeling that way has sort of showed up in part in relation to the Scottish Nationalists. Although there are a couple of left-wing independents in the Assembly there.

I have no idea about Wales to be honest.

NI is dominated by sectarian issues.

Turnout for the EP elections is so low in general it's hard to separate out effects. 39% in 2004, but 28% in 1999. One could argue about the Green Party or the fact that the Tories + UKIP did so well...

London - I don't know the constituency breakdown well enough, but it looks to me like the effect is there somewhat.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Feb 9th, 2007 at 11:13:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
in 2000 as opposed to 1996 or 2004

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 9th, 2007 at 08:29:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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