European Tribune

Display:
Yeah, funny. The same "pride comes before a fall" can be said about Bush-economy. But they are very good in applying reverse projection a la 2000: accuse the other side of character or "fall" problems, so that no one would even think that you had those problems yourself.

In facto, the economy of the 1920's was very similar to the currebt "boom":

"Many factors played a role in bringing about the depression; however, the main cause for the Great Depression was the combination of the greatly unequal distribution of wealth throughout the 1920's, and the extensive stock market speculation that took place during the latter part that same decade".

The same factors are at work today except that the speculation is in real estate rather than stocks. Just as in the 1920's the equity bubble was not created by wages keeping pace with productivity (the healthy formula for growth) but by the expansion of personal debt. Also, one could buy stocks without the money to purchase them, just as one can buy a $600,000 or $700,000 house today with zero-down and no monthly payment on the principle for years to come. [...]

"(The income disparity) between the rich and the middle class grew throughout the 1920's. While the disposable income per capita rose 9% from 1920 to 1929, those with income within the top 1% enjoyed a stupendous 75% increase in per capita disposable income. A major reason for this large and growing gap between the rich and the working-class people was the increased manufacturing output throughout this period. From 1923-1929 the average output per worker increased 32% in manufacturing. During that same period of time average wages for manufacturing jobs increased only 8% (This ultimately causes a decrease in demand and leads to growth in credit spending)

The federal government also contributed to the growing gap between the rich and middle-class. Calvin Coolidge's (pro business) administration passed the Revenue Act of 1926, which reduced federal income and inheritance taxes dramatically.

As Einstein would say again: Insanity is doing the same things again and expecting different results. Bush is repeating every mistake, and more.

How did it happen in 1929?

On Monday October 21, 1929, the over-valued stock market began its downward plunge. It managed a brief mid-week comeback, but 7 days later on Black Tuesday it plummeted again; 16 million shares were dumped and there were no buyers.

"Reforms" can surely wait another week. Isn't it remarkable that yesterday's NYSE was so sensitive to Shanghai's correction (after stupendous 130% growth last year), or Greenspan's word "recession", or what else? The huge volume at the sell-off moment shows a lot of bad anticipation lurking.

by das monde on Thu Mar 1st, 2007 at 07:48:24 AM EST

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Recent Diaries
Debates
Campaigns
Occasional Series