I expect that it would be a pretty big crisis if Le Pen were not on the ballot. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Sarko: 28% (-1) Bayrou: 23% (+4) Royal: 23% (-2.5) Le Pen: 13% (+1) (Villiers: 1%)
Without Le Pen: Sarko: 34.5% Bayrou: 25% Royal: 24% (Villiers: 3.5%)
Doesn't take a denouncement by Le Pen into account of course. That's the first poll putting Bayrou at parity with Royal. "The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
Sarokzy's camp is trying to avoid that outcome at all costs, because he needs LePens' voters in the second round if its Royal -- and moreover because LePen not being on the ballot and blaming the incumbent government for keeping him out could very well put Bayrou over the hump ahead of Royal in the first round -- and likely give him the Presidency.
What remains to be seen is if Sarkozy and the UMP will be held responsible for explicitly calling for mayors to sign for LePen.
I am concerned though about Bayrou's proposal to deploy fully proportional elections for the parliament - effectively opening seats for the FN, but that can be debated as it also would help see more greens or extreme-left in the parliament. Le caoutchouc serait un matériau très précieux, n'était son élasticité qui le rend impropre à tant d'usages.- A.Allais
