The US can't be punished now, but if it trips over Iran and breaks its neck, it will be punished for its past violations of international law. At least I hope so. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
China flexed it financial muscle recently, and the markets responded instantly.
The US isn't really a superpower. It just thinks it is one, and has (almost) everyone else fooled.
But it can't afford its current levels of adventuring, politically, financially or socially. There will be a payback period. It may land on the wrong people for the wrong reasons. But even so - I'll be hugely surprised if there isn't an accounting within the next decade, and possibly even within the next couple of years.
Key to the "accounting" is the relationship between the Dollar and Oil.
It HAS to change and soon: I'm two years bid and five years offered
In the meantime, if I were a hedge fund manager I'd be borrowing as many dollars as I could and using them to buy energy assets in any country mad enough (or coerced enough) to sell them...
SO I still give the American Empire a range of 10-40 years.. and if it were to pursue the first among equals policy instead of Empire (with intelligence) .. it could keep on for over half a century (and it could be longer but I do not dare to predict anything 50 years from now)
Other than that, it will be another England/France/Spain at the most within 40 years.
An opinion of the future.. a mere opinion.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
...c'est le moment de désespoir où l'on découvre que cet empire qui nous avait paru la somme de toutes les merveilles n'est en réalité qu'une débâcle sans fin ni forme, que sa corruption est trop évidemment gangréneuse pour que notre sceptre puisse y apporter remède, que la victoire sur les souverains adverses nous a rendus les héritiers de leur lent écroulement. » Italo Calvino in « Les Villes Invisibles » "Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
How could the US break its neck by tripping over Iran? WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
You're assuming China is interested in using a strategy that amounts to an economic version of a suicide bombing. On a side note it seems that China has been buying a lot of mortgage securities.. I'm amused - if the really bad version of the housing crash happens the way it will look to me is that the US spent a lot of money buying shiny little consumer goods in China, China will have spent a lot of that money building up infrastructure at home, but also lots of housing in the US in the form of loans that won't get paid back.
A decision by China to crash the US economy means two things: a) the collapse of China's export led model of economic growth b) wiping out all those accumulated surpluses that they've earned due to the export boom.
Sure, it's not the only model available, so they can change. But the sudden forced transition will be at least as unpleasant for them as it will be for the US.
Also don't forget the old Chess game saying (from Aron Nimzovitch): "The threat is stronger than the execution" "Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
ie threaten to pull the plug.
In fact I would be amazed if the Chinese etc don't use the same threat to get a piece of the Great Iraqi Carve-Up (Grand Theft Babylon).
The US is about to learn that Dollars are priced in Oil, and not vice versa.
Whatever the forum for mutually accepted quasi-obligatory drawing of lines in the sand, you can call it UN(SC). *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Countries can draw lines in the sand without the UN.
It does help to have somewhere where you know that not only you are being watched over where you draw lines, but also where you know that the people watching do speak the language of diplomacy and so are going to go back and tell the opposing government the correct message that you are trying to send. Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
