European Tribune

Display:
Countries can draw lines in the sand without the UN.

How could the US break its neck by tripping over Iran?

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 07:02:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We've discussed various ways in which an Iranian adventure can be a disaster for the global economy. Plus the US has 150 thousand sitting ducks in Iraq. Plus if China gets pissed off enough they can cause a financial crash, too?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 07:07:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plus if China gets pissed off enough they can cause a financial crash, too?

You're assuming China is interested in using a strategy that amounts to an economic version of a suicide bombing.  On a side note it seems that China has been buying a lot of mortgage securities.. I'm amused - if the really bad version of the housing crash happens the way it will look to me is that the US spent a lot of money buying shiny little consumer goods in China, China will have spent a lot of that money building up infrastructure at home, but also lots of housing in the US in the form of loans that won't get paid back.

A decision by China to crash the US economy means two things:
a) the collapse of China's export led model of economic growth
b) wiping out all those accumulated surpluses that they've earned due to the export boom.

Sure, it's not the only model available, so they can change. But the sudden forced transition will be at least as unpleasant for them as it will be for the US.

by MarekNYC on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 03:49:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
MAED... Mutual Assured Economic Destruction

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 04:44:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a normal situation, China has no interest in breaking the "Bretton Woods II" fragile equilibrium and weakening the dollar. But if the US create havoc by starting a war with Iran, the situation will become very different and it could trigger the collapse of the financial house of cards...

Also don't forget the old Chess game saying (from Aron Nimzovitch): "The threat is stronger than the execution"

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Wed Mar 14th, 2007 at 08:41:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
China and others holding dollar balances could pull the same trick as the US did to the Brits at Suez.

ie threaten to pull the plug.

In fact I would be amazed if the Chinese etc don't use the same threat to get a piece of the Great Iraqi Carve-Up (Grand Theft Babylon).

The US is about to learn that Dollars are priced in Oil, and not vice versa.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 07:10:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Like the Bushistas, you misunderestimate the value of just getting people to regularly sit at the same table to talk geopolitics. Like I said, it's a systemic thing.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 07:15:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's also the basic idea behind the EU.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 10:11:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Countries can draw lines in the sand without the UN.

Whatever the forum for mutually accepted quasi-obligatory drawing of lines in the sand, you can call it UN(SC).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 10:10:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Countries can draw lines in the sand without the UN.

It does help to have somewhere where you know that not only you are being watched over where you draw lines, but also where you know that the people watching do speak the language of diplomacy and so are going to go back and tell the opposing government the correct message that you are trying to send.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 07:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, you just swagger in the privacy of your own home, and if someone crosses the line you blame them for how knowing about your threat.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2007 at 05:23:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I know that works with the youths on my street

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2007 at 06:12:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Debates
Campaigns
Occasional Series