If the candidates that has a chance at making it to run-off are Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou and Le Pen then these are the possible run-offs:
Sarkozy vs. Royal? Sarkozy vs. Bayrou? Bayrou vs. Royal? Sarkozy vs. Le Pen? Royal vs. Le Pen? Bayrou vs. Le Pen?
So which are likely? A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
All others are equally (not very) likely, in my mind, except Le Pen-Bayrou. In order of decreasing likelihood:
Bayrou vs. Royal. Bayrou wins with the right. Royal vs. Le Pen. Royal wins 60-40. Sarkozy vs. Le Pen. Sarkozy wins with low participation Sarkozy vs. Bayrou - Bayrou wins with the left.
Bayrou vs. Le Pen. Nah. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
did i miss something ?
