IF Le Pen voters decide to vote Sarko all the same;
IF Bayrou is in Round Two;
IF Sarko beats Bayrou...
Lot of IFs in your supposed realism...
What 500 signatures? Forced not to run?
Huh? A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
Does Le Pen need support of some from the UMP to get his 500? (I guess this would be what is refered to as being forced not to run.) A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
Many of the small commune mayors are not publicly UMP or PS or whatever. So they don't have party pressure not to sign.
But there is the stigma of signing for Le Pen - implicitly supporting him - that many mayors don't want to go through. There have also been reports of Departmental Councils (conseil général) cutting off subsidies if the mayor signs for the wrong candidate.
In 2002 the hurdle was quite low as mayors freely gave signatures - there ended up being 16 candidates, a major reason for Jospin's failure to make it to the second round.
Le Pen can clearly get his signature without any UMP mayor signing. But he likes to play the victim - it gets him airtime. He played the same comedy in 2002. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
"IF Le Pen voters decide to vote Sarko all the same;"
at least 70% of them will vote Sarko and the others are unlikely to vote Sego or Bayrou
"IF Bayrou is in Round Two;"
very likely
"IF Sarko beats Bayrou..."
I do not think that Bayrou will stand very long front of Sarko in a public debate and whatever the Legislative result will show an overwhelming UMP majority (i think it is the reason why Bayrou will loose the second tour, everyone know he will not be able to govern without the UMP )
"Lot of IFs in your supposed realism..." ;-)
The thing I wonder is how man FN voters are going to bother to show up on election day, if Le Pen isn't on the ballot? "The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
Nice try, frédougne!
