I'm gonna go with
Royal: 25% Bayrou: 22% Sarkozy: 21% Le Pen: 16%
That is, Sarkozy shoots himself one too many times in the foot with his fishing trips in FN-land, and Royal manages to hold on to what she's got. With PS and UMP taking off the gloves, Bayrou will be sufficiently softened up to be beatable in the second round in a 49.2% - 50.8% nail biter.
(Of course, my predictions are never even in the proximity of being right, so I just sunk Royal's campaign. Dangit!) "The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
ÉLECTION #58 semaine du 5 au 11 MARS 2007
TOTAL DES VOTES : 17761 (dont 145 VOTES BLANC)
CANDIDAT % VOTES VOTES François Bayrou 2ème TOUR 24,59 % 4332
Nicolas Sarkozy 2ème TOUR 21,28 % 3748
Ségolène Royal 19,68 % 3467
Jean-Marie Le Pen 17,88 % 3149
José Bové 3,28 % 577
I think it's very near reality, even if the place of Bayrou/Sarko have probably to be swapped. Sego won't make it to the second run. I live in a so called "quartier populaire", the laboring masses are not going to vote for her. She represents the status quo of the privileges of the middle class, the administration. One major endorsement of Bayrou by guys like Borloo or a deceived DSK and she is dead meat. Besides a book about her by Besson (her former accountant) is coming on the 20th and said to be explosive.
for me this diary of one the Liberation's blogs is very revealing :
http://bruxelles.blogs.liberation.fr/coulisses/2007/03/le_niveau_baiss.html
she obviously doesn't know what she is talking about. I can forgive a mistake about the amount of nuclear submarines, but not this especially when you come from ENA.
