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Le Pen that high? Are you excepting low voter turn-out?

I'm gonna go with

Royal: 25%
Bayrou: 22%
Sarkozy: 21%
Le Pen: 16%

That is, Sarkozy shoots himself one too many times in the foot with his fishing trips in FN-land, and Royal manages to hold on to what she's got. With PS and UMP taking off the gloves, Bayrou will be sufficiently softened up to be beatable in the second round in a 49.2% - 50.8% nail biter.

(Of course, my predictions are never even in the proximity of being right, so I just sunk Royal's campaign. Dangit!)

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Wed Mar 14th, 2007 at 06:34:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
votez2007 (internet polling) gives the following
http://www.votez2007.com/tour1archives.asp?num=58

ÉLECTION #58
semaine du 5 au 11 MARS 2007

TOTAL DES VOTES : 17761
(dont 145 VOTES BLANC)

  CANDIDAT % VOTES VOTES
 François Bayrou 2ème TOUR  24,59 % 4332

 Nicolas Sarkozy 2ème TOUR  21,28 % 3748

 Ségolène Royal 19,68 % 3467

 Jean-Marie Le Pen 17,88 % 3149

 José Bové 3,28 % 577

I think it's very near reality, even if the place of Bayrou/Sarko have probably to be swapped. Sego won't make it to the second run. I live in a so called "quartier populaire", the laboring masses are not going to vote for her. She represents the status quo of the privileges of the middle class, the administration. One major endorsement of Bayrou by guys like Borloo or a deceived DSK and she is dead meat. Besides a book about her by Besson (her former accountant) is coming on the 20th and said to be explosive.

for me this diary of one the Liberation's blogs is very revealing :

http://bruxelles.blogs.liberation.fr/coulisses/2007/03/le_niveau_baiss.html

she obviously doesn't know what she is talking about. I can forgive a mistake about the amount of nuclear submarines, but not this especially when you come from ENA.

by oldfrog on Wed Mar 14th, 2007 at 09:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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