I would add a dimension that I think may be more determinative than economic, social or foreign policy -- that is political reform. Bayrou's success, if its to be sustained, is based not so much on his economic positions (which are not very clearly laid out, but amount to big cutbacks in government spending to reduce debt - not a popular idea) nor his pro-European position (also not that popular in France now) but the perception that he represents institutional change.
Royal scored some good media with her call Sunday for a VIe Republique and its clear she's hoping to make this a centerpiece of the final phase of the campaign. And to a large extent, FN voters are (as is pointed out upthread) voting for a candidate who appeals for his authoritarian personality and hostility to parliamentary democracy.
So I think in effect, the big differences, for voters, may come down to a change in party system (Bayrou), a change in the republic (Royal if she sticks to this new "revolution douce"), etat-UMP (Sark), or no republic at all (LePen.)
How that arranges on a left-to-right continuum is pretty difficult to say. As an American liberal who follows French politics closely, I've come to the conclusion in the past few years that a directly elected president (or an indirectly un-elected President, in the case of the US) does not serve su well, and I was disappointed when the PS did not adopt Montebourg's reforms last year. I'm glad to see them back on the table (in modified form) and I hope this might be the silver bullet for Royal.
I've come to the conclusion in the past few years that a directly elected president (or an indirectly un-elected President, in the case of the US) does not serve us well, and I was disappointed when the PS did not adopt Montebourg's reforms last year.
I agree with you. I was infuriated when the PS made the change in the electoral calendar (i.e. putting the legislative elections after the presidential one) "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
What Bayrou offers, I think, is not so much institutional reform (as far as I can make out, his proposals on institutions are to increase decentralisation at the same time as to increase presidential power over parliament!), as a reset of the party system. Voters are attracted by the idea of a non-extreme alternative to the two major parties, a third way. Personally, I think it's an illusion, another occurrence of the old French political chestnut known as l'ouverture, where the right or left in power is supposed to be ready to "open up" to the other side. It has never come to anything yet - unless it was in the coalition jockeying of the 4th Republic, which has in fact been brought up in connection with Bayrou... Who definitely says he'll split the existing majors up and form a government with the bits...
All this is far from the VIe Republic. I'm certainly in favour of a reduction of presidential power in France. It might sit well with Royal to be the one to offer that - elect me president, and I will scale down my own powers.
