It's not insignificant that Royal represents a major party of government, while Bayrou runs a rump party that he held on to in order to mount this presidential attempt. The question one can fairly ask is, what would a Bayrou government look like? Currently, he can barely get a deputy elected to the National Assembly without UMP assistance. He floats the idea that he would gather people to him from right and left. But apart from possibly a few individuals breaking off to join him, the PS won't back him. His natural, historical family, in which he has always operated, is the right. To form a government, I'd expect him to build a new coalition with the UMP. Just how truly "centre" that would be... Well, it wouldn't... It would be the right with the UDF in the driving seat instead of the UMP, like back in Giscard's presidency.
If (as likely) so, he would be the most powerful man of the majority, whoever is prime minister. And thirsting for revenge... "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
There are those who argue the best thing for the PS (not for the country or the people who support the PS) would be a Bayrou victory -- it would force a real clarification of the PS, probably to the left, and explode the UMP.
Against Royal: I fully agree with you.
Against Sarkozy: he will need to woo the left, and effectively move there to some extent to get a majority in Parliament. Quite unpredictable, I'd say... In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
This means he must base his government on his own small movement plus the movement that is absent from Round Two; the PS if he's against Sarko, the UMP if he's against Ségo.
I don't think either of these parties is ready to shatter, even if their absence from the second round would put them in serious difficulties. One of the main reasons for saying that is their electoral power in the first-past-the-post parliamentary elections which will follow the presidential, and which would be their main bargaining chip. These are parties with solid constituency organisations and a hold on most of the seats in the country. Why should they just fold and do Bayrou's bidding?
This, in any event, is why Bayrou's current talk, of taking some of the left and some of the right, is empty.
That is to say, I think a Bayrou victory is necessarily a victory for the center-right even if he wins with left votes -- just like Chirac in 02.