There are those who argue the best thing for the PS (not for the country or the people who support the PS) would be a Bayrou victory -- it would force a real clarification of the PS, probably to the left, and explode the UMP.
Against Royal: I fully agree with you.
Against Sarkozy: he will need to woo the left, and effectively move there to some extent to get a majority in Parliament. Quite unpredictable, I'd say... In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
This means he must base his government on his own small movement plus the movement that is absent from Round Two; the PS if he's against Sarko, the UMP if he's against Ségo.
I don't think either of these parties is ready to shatter, even if their absence from the second round would put them in serious difficulties. One of the main reasons for saying that is their electoral power in the first-past-the-post parliamentary elections which will follow the presidential, and which would be their main bargaining chip. These are parties with solid constituency organisations and a hold on most of the seats in the country. Why should they just fold and do Bayrou's bidding?
This, in any event, is why Bayrou's current talk, of taking some of the left and some of the right, is empty.
That is to say, I think a Bayrou victory is necessarily a victory for the center-right even if he wins with left votes -- just like Chirac in 02.
