If Bayrou is in the second round, the problem seems to me to be: what mandate can he claim to have to govern with the movement represented by his opponent?

This means he must base his government on his own small movement plus the movement that is absent from Round Two; the PS if he's against Sarko, the UMP if he's against Ségo.

I don't think either of these parties is ready to shatter, even if their absence from the second round would put them in serious difficulties. One of the main reasons for saying that is their electoral power in the first-past-the-post parliamentary elections which will follow the presidential, and which would be their main bargaining chip. These are parties with solid constituency organisations and a hold on most of the seats in the country. Why should they just fold and do Bayrou's bidding?

This, in any event, is why Bayrou's current talk, of taking some of the left and some of the right, is empty.

Jerome, I was thinking about the effect on the legislatives of a Bayrou victory. I think that effect will be the same whomever he would have beaten since I would expect that only a few centrists -- Strauss-Kahniens or 'decus du fabusienisme' -- from the PS would agree to serve in B's government or run for the Assembly on his ticket. I think many more UMP would do so. So I think the effect would be the same either way.

That is to say, I think a Bayrou victory is necessarily a victory for the center-right even if he wins with left votes -- just like Chirac in 02.